Three Ways to Assess Rangers’ AL West, Playoff Hopes After Bad Road Trip

The good news is that the Texas Rangers’ most recent road trip could have gone worse. The bad news is that the road trip couldn't have gone that much worse.

Texas (61-64) returns home to begin a three-game series with the Washington Nationals on Tuesday three games under .500 and on the outside looking in at both the race and the American League West and the final American League wild card berth. But strangely enough, not all is lost.

With Texas getting the day off, here are three ways of looking at their pursuit of a playoff berth.

The AL West

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez points his finger to the sky after hitting a home run. — Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rangers did themselves no favors on this road trip. While they're still just two games behind the Astros (63-62) in the division, the week was a missed opportunity. The Rangers faced two of the three worst teams in the majors by record and went 2-5. Even a 4-3 road trip would have cut Houston's lead.

On paper, the Rangers remain in this race. But last week feels like the week Texas allowed it to slip away. Since the Rangers don't own the tiebreaker with the Astros, they'll need to be one game ahead of Houston at the end of the season to win the division. It's not hard to imagine the Rangers getting one more win than the Astros by the end of the season.

But Texas needs three more wins than the Astros after Sunday's action. That's because Texas is two games back. That's why it feels like more of an uphill battle then it looks.

AL Wild Card

Texas Rangers right fielder Brandon Nimmo points to the sky after a hit. — Texas Rangers right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The easier path for Texas might be the final American League wild card berth. The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are at least five games ahead of the field, so their spots are all but locked in. The race to the third wild card berth is a bouillabaisse of mediocrity.

The Baltimore Orioles (61-63) have the final berth going into Monday's action, but they are two games under .500. Texas is one-half game behind them while the Toronto Blue Jays (61-65), the Cleveland Guardians (60-64) and the Detroit Tigers (60-64) are one game behind the Orioles. Heck, even the Minnesota Twins (60-65) are 1.5 games back. All are under .500.

I don't think this is what Major League Baseball envisioned when they added the third wild card berth. All these teams have struggled to stay at .500. The Rangers will have head-to-head opportunities with the Blue Jays and with the Twins down the stretch. It could give them the edge they need if they're still within spitting distance of the final berth.

The Percentages

So, what will the Rangers do down the stretch? There’s no telling. But let’s use what they’ve done to this point — home and road — as a guide to try and figure it out.

Texas is 32-27 (.542) at home and 29-37 (.439) on the road. The Rangers have 22 home games and 15 road games remaining. If Texas holds to those percentages for the remaining home and road games, they will finish 12-10 (.545) at home and 7-8 (.467) on the road. Win six games on the road and it’s a .400 winning percentage. So, let’s be generous and say 7-8.

In that case the Rangers would finish 80-82. As bizarre as this sounds, it might be enough to claim, or not claim, the final berth by a game.

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