Rays Need To Be Prepared for Further Regression From Veteran Pitcher

Regression looks to be here for a veteran Tampa Bay Rays pitcher.

Sep 6, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; A detail view of a Tampa Bay Rays hat and glove at Tropicana Field. | Kim Klement-Imagn Images

One of the best stories thus far in the 2026 MLB regular season has been the performance of Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez.

A signing that was panned when it was announced at the onset of spring training, he far exceeded even the most positive of expectations. He performed so well that he got off to a historic start in his tenure with the team.

Through his first 10 starts, Martinez allowed two or fewer runs each outing. He had a 5-1 record and led the American League with a 1.62 ERA and 263 ERA+. His 2.9 bWAR was already the second most in a single season of his career in the MLB.

It was a wonderful story; however, there were signs of regression coming. Martinez’s pitching profile does not lend itself to remaining as dominant as he has been. Also, some predictive and advanced metrics didn’t paint the prettiest picture despite his raw production being so great.

Nick Martinez started season hot, but regression was coming

May 29, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Nick Martinez (28) receives the ball during the third inning against Los Angeles Angels at Tropicana Field. | Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), Martinez had the second-largest gap in ERA and ppERA. At the time the article was published, the veteran righty still had a 1.51 ERA before pitching seven strong innings against the Los Angeles Angels, in which he gave up two earned runs.

His ppERA was 4.17, with a 2.66 difference being topped by Spencer Arrighetti of the Houston Astros. He had a difference of 2.98 at the time the article was published.

What contributed to Martinez’s outlook being so grim? His Stuff+ is just below average at 99. His Location+ of 105 was barely above the league average, and he had a P+ of 104.

All of those numbers suggest that his performance was far outpacing his actual production. A team that relies on analytics as much as Tampa Bay does, it is something they were almost certainly preparing for. 

Tigers hit Nick Martinez hard

May 22, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez (28) follows through on a pitch against the New York Yankees during the sixth inning at Yankee Stadium. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Unfortunately, that regression looks to be hitting with his streak of starts allowing two or fewer runs coming to an end. Martinez took the mound looking to help the Rays avoid a sweep at the hands of the lowly Detroit Tigers, and he had his worst outing of the season.

He labored through four innings of work, being charged with six earned runs on nine hits and one walk. Limiting hard contact had been one of the reasons he was succeeding, but the Tigers took him deep twice, with Jake Rogers and Dillon Dingler both hitting home runs.

The poor outing increased Martinez’s ERA to 2.29 on the season. Another concerning statistic that hinted toward regression to the mean was his strikeout rate, which was 15.2% entering the game against Detroit.

That is going to drop even further after striking out only one batter. Pitchers like Martinez, who have a strikeout rate below 15%, can be effective, but it is virtually impossible for them to keep up the pace he was on in his first 10 starts.