Red Sox First Domino to Watch in Minors in 2026

The Boston Red Sox still have one of the farm systems in baseball despite trading a handful of pieces away over the last year, including Jhostynxon García and Brandon Clarke.

Plus, of course, a few of Boston's former top prospects have graduated from prospect status, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell.

Through 12 games, the Red Sox are 4-8 on the campaign so far. Boston is in last place in the American League East right now, but is just four games behind the New York Yankees, who are in first place. Things are going to shift throughout the year. That's a given. Boston has already had to deal with a bit of turnover. Injuries have popped up, including to Johan Oviedo. The bullpen has already had new faces coming in who didn't make the big league club out of camp. Tyler Samaniego, Zack Kelly and Tyler Uberstine are three examples.

This is simply the case every year. The bullpen specifically sees a ton of turnover and you need depth. Boston has another guy down in the minors who will be up at some point in Tommy Kahnle.

What about outside of the bullpen? Arguably, Payton Tolle is going to be the first big domino to fall for the organization down in the minors.

Why Payton Tolle Is Boston's No. 1 Domino To Watch Down In The Minors

Oct 1, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle (70) pitches during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

While doing this exercise, we were between Tolle and No. 13 prospect Mikey Romero. It wouldn't be a shock to see either in the majors in 2026 at some point. There was a time when Romero was called a "dark horse" option to make the Red Sox out of Spring Training. He didn't make the club out of camp, though, and is down in Triple-A, tearing it up. Romero has played in 10 games and is slashing .333/.375/.524 with one homer and 11 RBIs. But as of right now, there isn't much of a path for him to the majors unless an injury pops up with Marcelo Mayer or Caleb Durbin, or Boston sends one down to Triple-A.

Tolle also doesn't have a clear path to the majors right now, but arguably there's a better chance of him making the jump back to the majors than Romero. Tolle had a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings in Spring Training. He has followed up with a 4.50 ERA in two appearances for Triple-A Worcester so far.

We've already seen pitching injuries pop up. Oviedo is down for a while. Neither Patrick Sandoval nor Kutter Crawford are ready for big league action yet as they work their way back to full strength. Tolle is seemingly one injury away from the big leagues right now. If any of the five starters go down. Tolle would seemingly be in line to come at any point. Right now, Tolle doesn't appear to be a bullpen option, but that could change later on in the season like last season.

So, in looking at Boston's top prospects, Tolle is the big domino to watch. At some point he'll likely be in the majors and then that will impact the other starters, plus if he's promoted, it'd open a starting spot down in Triple-A. No. 4 prospect Kyson Witherspoon is down in High-A right now. It's a lot to ask of any prospect to have a meteoric rise like Tolle or Connelly Early did last year. But he's going to be another domino down in the minors this season, especially if he can follow in Tolle and Early's footsteps.