Analyzing Whether Yankees' Anthony Volpe Third Base Experiment Could Actually Work?

As the New York Yankees try to sort out the final pieces of their playoff plan throughout this relatively meaningless final week of the regular season, there's one position that's quickly gaining interest and intrigue: third base.

Ryan McMahon has gotten the lion's share of reps there over the course of the season, especially after the team began reducing the usage of a struggling Amed Rosario, whose bat and glove seemed to regress heavily in the offseason. José Caballero took over the position during McMahon's brief stint on the injured list, but has mostly ceded it back since.

However, Wednesday night's game notwithstanding, McMahon has struggled mightily offensively, so much so that he might be forcing the Yankees' hand. It doesn't help his case that he's regressed from a Gold Glove-caliber defender to a merely average one.

With McMahon's struggles, the Yankees have opened the door for someone else to take the position in October. While the most likely candidate is Caballero, Aaron Boone revealed Wednesday that an unlikely candidate is emerging: Anthony Volpe.

Aaron Boone expects Anthony Volpe to play 3B once or twice before the end of the regular season. #Yankees
— Gary Phillips (@GaryHPhillips) September 23, 2026

This could just be to have him ready as a depth option, but it could also be a sign that the team is weighing whether he could give the team the best chance to win at third base. There's reason to believe he can, but also reason to believe it might not be a good idea.

Why Anthony Volpe at third base may work

The simplest reason that it may work is that Volpe is a naturally gifted defender.

In three of his four years in the major leagues, he has graded out positively defensively while playing almost exclusively at the most demanding position, both in terms of range and arm strength.

In 2023, 2024, and 2026 combined, he had 25 Defensive Runs Saved, 21 Outs Above Average, and a 14 Fielding Run Value at the position while playing every day, three marks that were towards the top of the league.

The lone season he was not a good defender was 2025, when he played through a torn labrum for much of the season after an ill-fated dive on his non-throwing arm in May of that year. The immediate bounce-back after he returned from labrum surgery this season is proof that it wasn't spontaneous regression, but rather a fluke.

Still, with George Lombard Jr. grading out even better at shortstop in the minor leagues, Volpe was demoted in early August and asked to try other positions, which he's done since. In 93 innings at second base since being promoted back to the majors, he has 2 DRS and 1 OAA, looking clean and crisp throughout.

But what about third base? Most players who can handle shortstop tend to be even better at second and third base, something that the front office definitely hoped with Volpe after moving him off the position this summer. If he's good at shortstop, how great can he be elsewhere?

His range is undoubtedly his best attribute. Since coming into the league in 2023, Volpe has registered 10 runs of value off his range, which is higher than his actual total FRV of 8. If you remove his compromised 2025 data, he has 15 FRV worth of range value, while his arm and ability to turn double plays are both in the negatives.

So at third base, there's no doubt that Volpe would be very good at knocking down balls and snagging them to his left and right, potentially giving the Yankees a weapon to prevent doubles down the left field line.

But the fact that his arm has been a big negative at shortstop in his career will give some people pause about how good he can be at third base, a position that typically yields a bunch of long throws. That begs the question: does it matter?

Does arm strength matter at third base?

10 years ago, we'd have nothing but our eyes to determine how hard a guy can throw the ball. Fortunately, we have Statcast to help us now.

Volpe's arm strength has consistently been mediocre throughout his career, averaging between 81 and 82 miles per hour on his throws entering this year, when it has undoubtedly dipped due to the sample size at an easier position, per Baseball Savant. That mark consistently sat in the 30th percentile, well below average.

The average speed of a shortstop's throw in the majors is 86.2 mph. The average speed for a third baseman is 84.9 mph. It immediately dispels the belief that a third baseman has to have an equally strong arm, but where would Volpe stack up among those third basemen?

At 81-82 mph, Volpe would comfortably be below average at third base too, sliding in just above Kazuma Okamoto. Of the 53 third basemen with at least 50 throws, Volpe would be 38th.

How are the third basemen in his range defensively? Here are the 2026 defensive stats for the seven players in Volpe's immediate range:

Hao-Yu Lee: -3 DRS, -6 OAA, -4 FRV
Max Muncy (LAD): 3 DRS, 0 OAA, 1 FRV
Kazuma Okamoto: 2 DRS, -3 OAA, -3 FRV
Alex Bregman: 15 DRS, 9 OAA, 7 FRV
Max Muncy (ATH): -11 DRS, -6 OAA, -5 FRV
Brett Baty: 2 DRS, 1 OAA, 1 FRV
Caleb Durbin: 13 DRS, 5 OAA, 5 FRV

As you can see, it's an extreme mixed bag. Bregman and Durbin are two of the best defenders in baseball at their position despite not having a lot of zip on their throws, while Hao-Yu Lee and the Athletics' Max Muncy have been quite bad.

The fact that we have players from all different walks of life here suggests that arm strength doesn't matter nearly as much as some may believe. If a player has good range (the big calling cards of Durbin and Bregman), they can make up for maybe having to bounce a few. If they don't, it becomes a double negative.

It might also help to have a good first baseman at scooping. Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best of his generation at it (and this is now a Statcast stat!), but Luis García Jr. is quite mediocre. That said, the A's Nick Kurtz is significantly better at it than Boston's Willson Contreras and Chicago's Michael Busch.

So maybe arm strength just doesn't matter? If the Yankees deem that it isn't an issue, there should be no reservations about potentially deploying Volpe there come playoff time.

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