The Miami Heat's Giannis Antetokoumpo Offer Reminds of This Trade

There's a recent precedent to the type of deal the Heat are proposing to Bucks

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

There's no exact formula to a trade for a superstar.

So much is circumstantial, for both sides.

How salvageable is the relationship between the players and the current team?

How many other teams are interested?

What is the player's contractual situation, and how does that affect his leverage, should he limit teams with which he would eventually re-sign?

What are the current NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) restrictions?

So that makes it challenging to compare trades in the same season or offseason, let alone compare one to several seasons ago. But as the Miami Heat relentlessly pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo, there is one that comes to mind, at least in terms of the type of package that the Heat are reportedly willing to offer to the Milwaukee Bucks to consummate a swap for one of the NBA's top five talents, who was top-7 in MVP voting in nine straight seasons prior to playing only 36 games in this last one.

Mar 18, 2019; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Luka Doncic (77) drives to the basket against New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Another notable modern big

By 2019, Anthony Davis's patience with the New Orleans Pelicans had all but run out.

The No. 1 pick in 2012, when the team was still called the Hornets, Davis had made six All-Star games and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting four times. But, unlike Giannis (2021 champion in Milwaukee), he had not won anything of significance with his only team. Davis made the playoffs just twice, and averaged more than 30 points in his 13 games, but there were only 13 games -- and no advancement past the second round. So he wanted a change, and the Pelicans, with an extension looming (as for Giannis now), felt pressured to give it to him.

Davis was only turning 26 at the time, more than five years younger than Antetokoumpo is now. So there was quite a bit of competition for his services, but one franchise that had the upper hand, especially with LeBron James -- a long-time admirer of Davis and with whom he shared an agent -- already there:

The Los Angeles Lakers.

Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Lakers were trying to win immediately to justify James's trust and presence, after he left Cleveland for a second time in his career. James played only 55 games in 2018-19, and the Lakers went 37-45 as a whole, with some promising but raw players, most of them pre-James draftees.

And Davis made it easy by limiting his options to them -- something Giannis hasn't done publicly yet.

So the Lakers acted.

They packaged their third-leading scorer (Brandon Ingram), a recent top-5 pick (Lonzo Ball), a solid wing (Josh Hart) and three first round picks (including No. 4 overall in 2019, which became the draft rights to De'Andre Hunter, who was shipped to Atlanta, and turned into Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker). The other picks became Dyson Daniels and Herb Jones.

That's.... quite a lot, in retrospect.

That's true even though Alexander-Walker and Daniels haven't truly blossomed until leaving New Orleans -- both now core two-way players in Atlanta, coming off back to back Most Improved Player seasons. Jones has also been an elite defender. Hart is now on the verge of winning a championship as a starter with the Knicks, after a stint in Portland. Ingram was Toronto's leading scorer and an All-Star this season.

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

And yet everyone believes now that the Lakers won the trade, and it's hard to argue with that, since Davis helped deliver a championship in 2020 -- and then headlined a trade package that delivered Luka Doncic to the Lakers a few years after. (And who knows, now he may return to Los Angeles if he asks out of Washington).

But the issue with the Pelicans' haul for Davis doesn't seem to be what they received, but what they did with what they received. They didn't have the infrastructure to get the best out of these players, from Ingram to Hart to Alexander-Walker to Daniels, with Ball's injury issues making him the unfortunate exception.

And that brings us to Miami and Milwaukee.

By most reports, the Heat have made everything available but Bam Adebayo -- though that doesn't mean they will trade everything but Bam Adebayo. This depends on their leverage, and that depends on how many other teams (Boston? Orlando? Portland? Oklahoma City?) versus how much is fan and media fiction or the Bucks' ploy to pressure Miami to pony up more.

Even so, it is almost certain that the Heat will need to send the Bucks three players aged 26 or under (all of whom have produced at the pro level), plus three first-round picks, including the 13th pick in the upcoming 2026 draft.

Does that sound familiar?

One solid scorer -- Tyler Herro in this case is Ingram, albeit a shorter version, though Ingram had never made an All-Star team like Herro has, not prior to the trade.

One facilitator -- Jamie Jaquez Jr. didn't come into the NBA with Ball's hype, but his second place showing in Sixth Man of the Year voting was a superior season to anything Ball had produced to that point.

And one wild card, though Kel'el Ware's upside is far higher than anything has ever been projected for Hart, even as Hart has emerged as one of the league's top role players.

So it lines up.

And that may be just the start.

Miami could also include 2025 first round pick Kasparas Jakucionis, who would go higher than No. 20 in a redraft. Jakucionis didn't get consistent playing time until halfway through the season, but at age 19 (now 20), he did not seem overmatched on the defensive end and his shot was better than expected.

Or maybe Davion Mitchell, another former first round pick who is on the last year of a palatable contract and has become a much better offensive player in Miami while still being dogged defensively.

And while Nikola Jovic is not currently a positive asset, after signing a four-year extension (that kicks in this season) and struggling with injuries and inconsistency, he just turned 23 this week and the talent remains evident.

This doesn't include possible pick swaps that could fall in Milwaukee's favor.

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Of course, none of this alone is Giannis, the former No. 15 overall pick who exceeded every conceivable expectation and became a franchise pillar. That's why the Heat would do the deal. They need a top 10 player, a 1A, for the rest to fall into the place. This is how they've built best when they've actually gotten the guy, something they haven't done since landing Jimmy Butler after multiple tries in 2019.

But to say the Heat's offer is underwhelming doesn't align with history, even while considering the factors currently at play. It would be up to Milwaukee to make the most of it, either by keeping and developing the right players, shipping them off for something better or cashing in on the draft picks with more core starters and rotation players in a way Jon Horst hasn't during his Bucks GM tenure.

Or all of the above.

The odds are that the Heat will win the trade, because the team that gets the best player typically does. But the Bucks don't need to lose it too badly, if they handle the aftermath correctly.

In a way the Pelicans didn't....

After A.D.