A Way Too Early Look at the Raptors' Playoff Chances

The Toronto Raptors enter the 2026-27 season with hopes of a deep playoff run. Anything less than a second-round appearance would be considered a major disappointment after a 46-win season that saw Toronto earn the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference before a first-round exit at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The challenge now lies in proving that last year was not a fluke, as they try to find sustained success under head coach Darko Rajaković. While most of the roster returns from last year, the Raptors did make some key additions and subtractions this offseason. In a competitive Eastern Conference, Toronto hopes their new-look starting lineup will propel them to a top-four seed this year.

Continuity Gives Toronto a Strong Foundation

Apr 12, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors Ja'kobe Walter (14) and Collin Murray-Boyles (12) battle for a loose ball against Brooklyn Nets Tyson Etienne (10) during the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Unlike several of the other top teams in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors kept most of their roster from last year intact. The Boston Celtics lost Jaylen Brown, and the Detroit Pistons lost Tobias Harris. Additionally, neither team made big additions either, with Mitchell Robinson and John Collins being each team's biggest moves. This means two of the four teams that finished ahead of Toronto last year got worse.

The Raptors' biggest subtraction of the offseason coincided with their biggest addition, as they shipped off Brandon Ingram to bring back Kawhi Leonard (in principle at least). Scottie Barnes remains the face of the franchise, and the Raptors have a solid young core around him in Ja'Kobe Walter, Collin Murray-Boyles, in addition to rookies Allen Graves and Jaden Bradley.

Despite This, The East Isn't Getting Any Easier

Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley celebrates after scoring with guard Jamal Shead against the Oklahoma City Thunder — Feb 24, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley (5) celebrates after scoring with guard Jamal Shead (23) against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the fourth quarter at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the Celtics did trade away Jaylen Brown, he joins Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid in Philadelphia, making them look like a top three team in the East (with or without LeBron James). The Miami Heat also acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo from the Milwaukee Bucks, meaning they will likely improve from last season as well.

The Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks also boast relatively similar teams to last year, and they are likely to be competitive as well. The Raptors' success this season will largely depend on their ability to stay healthy, and win games. Kawhi Leonard has a lengthy history of injuries and "load management," but the Raptors are counting on his availability to put together a playoff run.

Early Prediction

Apr 5, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) before the game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's still far too early to make a final prediction, but it's never too early to speculate. The most realistic expectation for Toronto is that they will have another season where they are competing for a top six seed in the Eastern Conference.

If the Raptors get continued growth from players like Collin Murray-Boyles and Ja'Kobe Walter, while also getting 60+ games from Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors could easily steal a top four seed in the East. On the flip side, if Kawhi misses significant time, the Raptors could find themselves around the 6th or 7th seed.

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