A Way-Too-Early Look at the OKC Thunder’s Playoff Chances

Checking in on OKC's chances at grabbing another title.

May 26, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts after a play during the third quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in game five of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Just one calendar year removed from their own title, the Oklahoma City Thunder are now churning through a busy offseason featuring plenty of change. Still, they'll be looked at as a contender as one of the most talented rosters in the league.

But just what are their chances of competing for another title, even months away?

Firstly, the Thunder will have a different look than previous seasons, though that won’t necessarily affect their status as a contender. The team shipped out Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins for packages centered around second-round picks, but added two first-round prospects in No. 12 pick Aday Mara and No. 16 pick Bennett Stirtz.

Both Wiggins and Joe have been pivotal to the Thunder’s regular-season success, but couldn’t make a massive impact in the postseason last year.

On most fronts, OKC will maintain its success, and could be even better with an offseason from Jared McCain and the rookies. The retention of Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort were massive from a starting five and continuity perspective.

To assess the Thunder’s chances in the postseason next year, we’ll also need look at how the Western Conference has shaped up amid a wild offseason.

The most consequential moves involve the Timberwolves, Lakers, Clippers and Trail Blazers, who will all look very different than last year. 

Minnesota acquired LaMelo Ball for a package centered on Naz Reid and picks, LeBron James has departed the Lakers for free agency, the Clippers sent superstar Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto, and Portland nabbed Ja Morant on the trade market.

Ultimately, only the Ball trade feels relevant to OKC, with the rest still seemingly on the outside looking in of the contention tier. Even Ball could be a net negative trade, though his handling and shot-making could boost a Wolves team fresh off multiple conference finals appearances.

In terms of contenders league-wide, the Celtics seemingly lessened their chances by swapping Jaylen Brown for Paul George, with the opposite effect for the 76ers. The Heat added Giannis Antetokounmpo, but don’t yet have the depth to contend with the top dogs.

For now, Oklahoma City’s primary rivals continue to be the San Antonio Spurs, armed with Victor Wembanyana, as well as the reigning champion New York Knicks. With a healthy run, the Thunder should be primed to be able to take down either, continuing their status as one of the best teams in the NBA.

In the least, OKC should hold some of the top odds at grabbing their second title in three seasons.