How the Wizards Benefitted - and Lost - From the Western Play-In

The Washington Wizards should have nothing to do with the majority of this year's postseason festivities. They fell well short of the playoffs with their league-worst 17-65 record, yet their fingerprints could be detected all over the first Play-In Tournament matchup over in the Western Conference's side of the bracket.

The Portland Trail Blazers toppled the Phoenix Suns, 114-110, in a classic game of runs. Deni Avdija, the Wizards' old favorite son, led the way with 41 points in his first taste of post-regular season ball since getting traded to Portland, but plenty of outside fans predictably used the opportunity to reflect back on Washington's choice to trade the former top prospect for the umpteenth time.

And they weren't even the only participant in that game to have engaged with the Wizards on a major acquisition over recent years, with the Suns accepting an even more lopsided deal in taking on Bradley Beal's hefty contract at the start of Washington's rebuild. Even though he's long since been booted from Phoenix, enough residual draft-based consequences remain to provide D.C. with a subtle silver lining following the Suns' demotion to the win-or-go-home round of the Play-In.

The Deni Dilemma

The debate as to whether the Wizards made the right choice to part ways with Avdija, the ninth-overall pick of the 2020 NBA Draft, is taking longer to go away than any Washington fans could have known when the deal was made two summers ago.

Former Washington Wizards Forward Deni Avdija — Mar 14, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija (8) dribbles the ball during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

No one's even arguing whether the package that the Wizards got back in the return was equivalent. Avdija was continuing to get better every year, and now-departed veteran Malcolm Brogdon and the pick that eventually became Bub Carrington have done little to fill the upside that the burly forward offered. Anyone still holding onto the belief that Washington will break even in the swap is putting a lot of stock into the 2029 first-rounder that the Wizards snagged in the agreement.

But analysis without big-picture context is where most miss in understanding management's point of view.

It wasn't just that Avdija was a relic of the front office from the regime past; the newly-enacted decision-makers figured that he'd hinder the development of their own rebuild, and had he continued reaching his present All-Star form, bottoming out for top-end talent capable of supporting a potential contender would have been that much harder to accomplish.

As talented as he is as a high-usage free throw-drawer, his old team has drafted numerous exciting wings of their own in Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly and Will Riley. Sure, Avdija may have enjoyed his first postseason moment in securing the seventh seed in dramatic fashion, but that doesn't take as much away from the Wizards' slow-burn method as rubberneckers would have everyone believe.

Haunting the Suns

On the other end of the spectrum of trade consequences, here are the Suns. As if getting bounced to the final rung of the Play-In matchup ladder wasn't enough, they're still not done shedding the shame that came with Beal's disastrous stint in Phoenix.

They're saddled with a dead cap hit of $96.9 million to stretch over five years after paying Beal to go away last year, and that's to say nothing of the trove of deep-cut draft picks they gave to D.C. in courting his services. While they spiraled from contender into frisky western upstart, the Wizards have already begun circling the 2026 first-round swap that could await them next month.

Phoenix Suns Guard Devin Booker and Washington Wizards Guard Bilal Coulibaly — Jan 11, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Washington Wizards guard Bilal Coulibaly in the first half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The chances of the Suns jumping the Wizards in the draft order are low, but still technically in play.

Should Phoenix fall to the winner of the western 9-10 matchup later this week, they'll miss the playoffs altogether and slip into the lottery, where they have the chance to boost the Wizards' chances of winning the whole ordeal by 0.8% should all of the necessary pieces fall into place. And as Wizards fans know, teams with chances that slim have foiled them before.

This might seem ridiculous, but there is a reasonable path to the Wizards getting a 3.6% boost at being picked in the lottery + a 0.8% boost at #1 overall:

• PHX loses to POR
• PHX loses to the winner of GS/LAC
• The loser of PHI/ORL loses to the winner of the CHA/MIA game… pic.twitter.com/TvrhbTQPpY
— SleeperWizards (@SleeperWizards) April 13, 2026

Now, this isn't just up to the one team, even if they do flame out in spectacular fashion.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic tied Phoenix with 45 wins to cap off the schedule. They could push the Suns further up in the order should one of them miss out on the playoffs, thereby leaving the chance of jumping higher than the 14th seed to a coin flip, the same process that brought the Wizards into contact with their late-first round pick from last year.

In short, the Wizards should cling onto any chance they can get at jumping as high as possible into the uppermost echelon of the 2026 draft. They've been snakebitten before, falling as low as they could have in last summer's selection cycle, and they can use all of the support they can find to escape a similar fate befalling them this time around.

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