Mailbag: Jonathan Taylor’s Trade Value, Jordan Love Prediction, Worst-to-First Candidates
With 24 teams down, we’re bringing the mailbag back. It’s a day late this week, and hopefully we get back to publishing it Wednesday next week. For now …
From johnwinger (@johnwinger98524): Yes or no, does [Jonathan Taylor] get traded? If you answer yes, who ya got?
John, I’d say this is going to come down to where Colts GM Chris Ballard draws the line. It takes only one, but I don’t think another team is going to give up a first-round pick to get him when you consider that a big, new contract will almost certainly have to be part of the exchange, too. So will Ballard come off that price? It’s worth examining.
I polled 10 executives Monday night and came up with a consensus that, given the need for a new contract to be a part of it, Taylor’s value as a trade chip is a Day 2 pick, with maybe a Day 3 pick thrown in as a sweetener. That said, the thing about building a consensus on trade value is that it represents how a larger group of people view a fair price for the player—not necessarily what the top bidder would pay. Guys like Khalil Mack and Jalen Ramsey were traded for well above what their consensus value was at the time, for example.
So I could certainly see a team willing to give the Colts, say, a second-round pick and maybe a fifth-rounder that could become a fourth-rounder if certain play-time/performance incentives are hit. And if a team goes that far down the road, then my assumption is Taylor would be satisfied with the financial arrangement he’d have with that team.
Taylor, a first-team All-Pro in 2021, represents a potentially transformative piece on offense for some team. But it’s unclear whether anyone will match Indianapolis’s asking price of a first-round pick.
Bill Ingram/USA Today Network
If all that’s in place, then, what does Ballard do? At that point, you’d have a player who isn’t guessing what he could be making elsewhere anymore. He’d know. And if you don’t do the deal at that price, then things could get really ugly.
Anyway, that’s why it seems likely to me that if there’s a fair offer out there, Ballard would just take it at this point. And maybe take a little less than he’d like for someone who has been a great player for him, but may not be on the team past this year at any rate.
I’m on record, by the way, in saying I’d pay Taylor, if for nothing else than the good of Anthony Richardson. If you’re not gonna extend Taylor, though, and you know he’s not going to be happy without that, it may be best for your first-year coach to be done with it now.
As for where he could go, I’d spitball Miami and Chicago as destinations. The Dolphins had a deal in place for Dalvin Cook in March, and after that fell through, they tried to fill their need for a big-play threat in the backfield with third-round pick De’Von Achane, who’s now hurt. So there’s a need there. And the Bears have a coach (Matt Eberflus) who was with Taylor in Indy, a GM (Ryan Poles) who’s close to Colts GM Chris Ballard, a quarterback (Justin Fields) who could certainly stand to have run-game burden taken off him and draft capital to burn.
From Cygnus, the god of balance (@MyRocinante2112): What is it gonna take to get [Nick] Bosa signed?
Cygnus, plain and simple, it’ll take making him the highest-paid defensive player in the history of the game. When all’s said and done, my guess would be $32 million per year. There are two pieces to this that I think are really, really interesting.
The first concerns Nick Bosa himself, and his family. His dad, John, never coached him and Joey, but surrounded them with every resource imaginable to chase their dreams, in part because of his own experience in being a first-round pick whose NFL career was felled by injury. Part of it, to be sure, is learning and knowing your worth, and understanding how the sausage is made, and that teams won’t have any sympathy for you when you slip—so you shouldn’t have sympathy for them at the negotiating table while you have earning power.
In other words, I don’t think Bosa is going to sit there and accept any losses in contract talks any easier than he would losses on the field. Which is underscored by his holdout.
The second has to do with his agent: Brian Ayrault is a tough negotiator who’s never been afraid to play hardball, and he did a record-breaking pass-rusher deal for Bosa’s older brother three years ago. T.J. Watt is still at the top of that market, with a $28 million average on the monster deal he signed in 2021, and two years of inflation would almost certainly put Bosa’s average annual number north of $30 million.
And ultimately, while the 49ers, behind Paraag Marathe, are really good in this area, too—which is why this hasn’t been easy—what exactly are they going to do? Not sign the best defensive player (maybe by a healthy margin) in football? So, yeah, a deal will get done.
From hpjr (@hpjr): Jets hype. Real or nah?
It’s real, with one caveat: that things have to fall into place along the offensive line. The Jets‘ defensive line is loaded, and they legitimately can go 10 deep there. They have a war daddy at linebacker in C.J. Mosley and a strong secondary led by a first-team All-Pro corner in Sauce Gardner. And the offensive skill around Aaron Rodgers is deep, with Breece Hall’s return adding another score-from-anywhere threat to a group that has one of the best young receivers in football in Garrett Wilson and a deep well of complementary weapons.
So I hate to make this all about one thing, but right now it feels like it really is.
Does Duane Brown, coming off rotator cuff surgery, hold up at 38 years old? Has Mekhi Becton really grown up? Is Joe Tippmann ready to start at center, and, if not, how does Connor McGovern work out there? Does Alijah Vera-Tucker hit the ground running coming off his triceps injury? These are all fair questions, and the sum of the answers could be the difference between being a championship-caliber team and missing the playoffs in a stacked AFC.
From T M (@reshmanuel): Which of last season’s division cellar dwellers do you think could be most likely to flip to first in 2023?
I’d say the Falcons, first, just because the division is really winnable, and picking them almost feels like cheating, because they finished one game out of first last year. But the offense is good enough, I think, to support second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, and the defense added key pieces at every level and has a good base of talent now. So Atlanta winning the NFC South wouldn’t remotely surprise me.
After that, I’d say the Jets, which also feels like cheating the question a little—and I have them second just because they play in a much tougher division, and I still think Buffalo is going to be tough for everyone else to catch.
From Blake Goodson (@blakegoodson50): Thoughts on Jordan Love?
Blake, I really like where Love is. If David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins can stay healthy, then the offense around him should be in a position to support a first-time starter—with a stout run game behind a veteran line, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and a group of young targets (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave) set up to grow with the 24-year-old as he settles in as the guy. Plus, the defense, with Rashan Gary and Jaire Alexander back, should be plenty good enough to keep him from having to play from behind too often.
If you want me to ballpark numbers, I’d go somewhere around 3,300 yards, 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, with a team that I believe will be in the playoff hunt until the end.
Love is finally being given the reins in Green Bay after spending three years backing up Rodgers.
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
From Eddie (@piefan83): Is this Chris Jones’s final season in K.C.?
Eddie, I felt like the Chiefs were going to get something done with Jones one way or another, but it’s pretty hard now to whistle past the graveyard of a situation that has the star defensive lineman running his tab up to $1.6 million in mandatory fines.
We’ve outlined the issue already. My sense has been for a while now that Jones wants a deal in the Aaron Donald neighborhood—which was, and remains, an outlier deal held against the rest of the market—and the Chiefs want to pay him along the lines of what Quinnen Williams and Jeffery Simmons got in extensions earlier this summer. It’s not unlike when Calvin Johnson Jr., nearly a decade ago, had an outlier receiver deal that made it difficult for guys like Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas to find middle ground with their teams.
In those cases, the sides wound up splitting the difference. Johnson was at $16 million per. The next receiver was around $12 million. Those two got around $14 million. Could such a compromise work in this case, say, around $27 million or $28 million per year? I’d think so, but there’s no indication, that I’ve gotten at least, that there’s been a whole lot of budging of late. Which means everyone is playing the waiting game.
And if Jones shows, then he’d earn his money for this year, and then it’d cost the Chiefs $33.95 million to tag him in 2024 (it’d be his second tag), and a minimum of $48.89 million to tag him in ’25. So in March, absent a deal he’ll either have his freedom or a lot of leverage.
From Lope (@JLopeDawg): Is C.J. Stroud the Texans starter?
Based on the Texans’ options and Stroud’s progress, it’s hard to see this going any other way. Stroud’s starting again this week—meaning he’ll be the only quarterback to start this preseason for Houston—and he got a lot better from Week 1 (in New England) to Week 2 (at home against Miami), while facing two of the best defensive minds of this generation in Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio.
To me, that means something would have to happen between now and the opener for Stroud not to get the call on Sept. 10 in Baltimore, where, interestingly enough, he’ll face Jim Harbaugh’s brother and former Michigan defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald.
From Zeze (@Zezex0_0): Does it look like Kyler Murray will be ready for Week 1 or will he miss the first 4 weeks due to being on the PUP list?
Yeah, I’d be pretty surprised if we see him in September.
From Dexter Williams (@agentninja0): Is there an under-the-radar defense that has a chance to be special this season?
The Seahawks. If they can sort out their situation at defensive tackle, I don’t see any sort of glaring weakness. They have wildly talented young corners, depth at defensive end (keep an eye on Boye Mafe to make a jump) and proven vets at both linebacker and safety. And the scheme last year was adjusted a little from the old Pete Carroll scheme to better combat today’s offenses under new coordinator Clint Hurtt.
The Seahawks are talented across the board, more so than most people realize.
From lanchester royal (@LanchesterRoyal): What’s the Jets’ plan for Zach Wilson now that Aaron Rodgers might be playing more than two years and Rodgers also mentioned he wants to give it to Zach Wilson when he’s done [...] what’s the story with that?
It’s a good question, Lanchester. It’s hard to imagine the Jets see enough from Wilson this year, barring an injury to Rodgers, to pick up a fifth-year option for 2025 that would cost more than $20 million. That’d mean Wilson will play this year and next as a backup, and is free that spring, and then the Jets would have to make a decision on him—which obviously would be affected by whether Rodgers is still around.
If Rodgers isn’t, and Wilson is developed, I’d imagine he would want to stay and he’d be more valuable to the Jets, at that point, than any other team. If Rodgers were to play a third year in Jersey, different story. Either way, the Jets are a ways off from having to worry about that.
From Strickly Speakin’ (@SpiderStrick): Are the Commanders watching the late camp cuts, looking for possible help at RT, or are they confident in Andrew Wylie?
Yeah, I think Washington will be looking for offensive line help in general, but I think they’re O.K. with Wylie at right tackle. The big question for the Commanders is who’ll be the left guard. My sense is they’re comfortable with Charles Leno at left tackle, Wylie on the right, Sam Cosmi at right guard and Nick Gates at center. (You can read more on that in my camp dispatch on the Commanders.)
From Bucmike (@freakshowmike): Honest thoughts on the Bucs?
A good layer of foundation pieces, but the consequence of carrying all the dead money this year (which, by the way, is the right thing for them to do) is that if they have a couple of injuries in the wrong places, they could be in trouble fast.
Remember, there are a ton of championship-proven players there that have a lot of pride and aren’t real interested in hearing about having a reset year. So if healthy, who knows?
From x - cheeseNwine9 (@cheesenwine9): Are you more confident in rookie RBs or rookie WRs?
The answer typically would be running backs, just because the position translates so much faster to the NFL. And particularly this year, where you had a just-O.K. receiver class in the draft and a strong running back group headed up by two potential difference-makers.
That said, it is worth considering that 12 of the best 25 seasons by a rookie receiver of all time, by receiving yardage, happened in the last decade. That’s indicative of teams doing more of what players are doing in college, shortening the learning curve, and receivers who’ve played seven-on-seven since they were in elementary school being more prepared for the pros.
That doesn’t mean Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Quentin Johnston or Jonathan Mingo are going to better this year than Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet or Tyjae Spears. But there sure is a better chance of that happening than there used to be.
From Jesse Menley (@Jastyle76): What player made the best impression on you? Performance or leadership-wise.
If you’re looking for a nonobvious name, I’ll give you DJ Moore in Chicago. In the Panthers’ trade up for No. 1 pick, Moore basically was included in place of a 2025 first-round pick, and it looks like the Bears are gonna wind up looking good on that exchange. Moore’s built a relationship with Fields quickly and has been a good, positive influence for a young receiver room (and remember, he’s still just 25).
The other one I’d throw out to you is Daniel Jones in New York. The Giants' quarterback is carrying himself with a ton of confidence, and it’s the real confidence of a guy who’s finally getting ownership of the offense he’s running, which has enabled him to lead.
Moore has assumed an early leadership role on a young offense with his new team in the Windy City.
Jamie Sabau/USA TODAY Sports
From Brian (@fhbrian): You're GM of the Titans. What do you do at QB while looking ahead for 2024? If Reggie Roberson makes it, how about that comeback story?
Brian, if you’re looking for me to say Ryan Tannehill’s gonna lose his job soon, you’ve come to the wrong place. New OC Tim Kelly is shifting the scheme there to the kind of Patriots offense he and Bill O’Brien ran in Houston, and that means there’ll be more on the quarterback mentally than there was in the Mike Shanahan–style scheme the Titans ran over Mike Vrabel’s first five years. Which naturally favors Tannehill over the young guys.
If we get 10 or 12 games in and the Titans are out of the playoff race, then, obviously, we’re talking about something else completely with Tannehill being in a contract year. And maybe that’s where you start the information gathering on where Malik Willis and/or Will Levis stand going into 2024 by playing one or both. But we’re not there yet.
From Yapy.coor (@Yapybara): How would you rank the rookie WRs so far in the preseason and who got the biggest steal in the draft so far?
As far as who I think will be most productive in Year 1, I’d say my top five, in order, would be Smith-Njigba, Mingo, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers and Tank Dell (some of this is based on opportunity—Johnston, for example, has a lot of competition for touches among his Chargers teammates). As for the steals, two Day 3 dark horses would Bengals slot receiver Charlie Jones, who could be Tyler Boyd’s heir apparent, and Buccaneers burner Trey Palmer.
Note: I’m terrible at fantasy, so use this information for those purposes at your own risk.
