Will Deebo Samuel Have Over or Under 725.5 Receiving Yards in 2023?

2022 was a subpar year for former All Pro receiver Deebo Samuel.

It is something that even Samuel himself has acknowledged, which he cites the contract extension as a reason for the slow start. Well, that was a lame excuse because plenty of players in the NFL have had contract negotiations during an offseason and still managed to play well in the upcoming season.

Samuel on the other hand thought he could take it light with the workouts and just show up late to training camp like nothing. He came in out of shape and out of sync with the offense. Explosiveness wasn't there until midseason and his stats weren't anywhere close. In 2021, he managed to get to 1,000 receiving yards by around midseason. Flip it to the next year and he could only muster up 632 receiving yards.

Still, Samuel is a talented player who is threatening. That is why DraftKings sportsbook has Samuel's over/under for receiving yards set at 725.5. It's a bit of an in between from 2022 Samuel and 2021 Samuel in this department, but clearly closer to 2022. A lot of this will stem on the conditioning of Samuel and if he can be close to the All Pro version he showcased two years ago.

So, will Samuel have over or under 725.5 receiving yards in 2023?

Bank on it. I think the only thing that holds Samuel back from eclipsing that is if he misses a quarter of the season. I don't think getting 1,000 yards is in his capability this year, but over 725.5 is right there for him. When Samuel spoke at his press conference during OTAs, he really displayed annoyance with how he assessed himself last year. Even though the excuse of being in a contract negotiation is weak, he still wore his poor season on his sleeve.

2023 is going to be bounce back year for Samuel. And given the potential of Brock Purdy's arm being weaker after having UCL surgery, then it will only demand the ball go to Samuel more and quickly around the line of scrimmage. This is where he thrives when he can catch it and just take off. Defenses will look to stop McCaffrey first and foremost now as a runner. In the receiving game, it has to be Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle because they are much more impactful there.

Samuel is really just an offensive player. He is basically positionless, which works perfectly in a Kyle Shanahan ran offense. This year will see a closer version of the 2021 Samuel than the 2022 one.