Trey Lance is going to make mistakes in 2022.
Whether it is going through his reads incorrectly or holding the football for too long, the 49ers are going to have to expect that he'll mess up.
One definite way of him going through a rough patch is when he throws an interception. Young quarterbacks are typically more susceptible to throwing picks, but also the fact that Lance will be taking shots deep. He could be more prone to chucking it into a loaded area of defenders which could cause his interceptions skyrocket. DraftKings sportsbook has the over/under set at 9.5 interceptions for Lance this season.
So will Lance have over or under 9.5 interceptions in 2022?
Take the over. I expect Lance to have double-digit interceptions this year. To be exact, I believe he'll replicate the number Jimmy Garoppolo threw for last year with 12. Throwing double-digit interceptions is not an atrocity for Lance. His interceptions are going to need to come with context. If he is throwing dumbfounding passes that are clean to a defender in 49ers territory, then it will be alarming.
But I foresee a good portion of Lance's interceptions coming from throws that are fairly deep. I'd say over 15-yard throws will be where he sees the bulk of his interceptions committed, and that's okay because at least he's taking shots and isn't afraid. Those interceptions are actually a good thing for Lance in a way. He can learn from those experiences.
This is why the 49ers brought in Brian Griese as quarterbacks coach. When Lance commits those mistakes, it is on Griese to level with him and let him know of it as a teaching moment. The hope is that Lance can see it as such, get better from it and not let it fester in his mind. Otherwise, if he lets it linger, then the 49ers will have a major problem on their hands.
For Lance to be under 9.5 interceptions this season, it would require great care from him. One that would automatically make his debut full-time starting season a pretty impressive one. Throwing 10 interceptions is pretty normal from quarterbacks nowadays, especially with a 17-game season. You only stay under 9.5 interceptions if you're pretty good. Lance has the potential to be pretty good this season, but if he takes the shots that I believe the 49ers will allow him to take, then he is going to force some throws into unwarranted areas, and that's okay.
Are you taking the over or under of 9.5 interceptions for Lance this season?