49ers Need Changes to Pave the Way to a Win Over the Seahawks

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Running the ball and stopping the run are the foundations of winning playoff games, but both are questions for the Niners entering the divisional round matchup in Seattle. They will need changes in personnel and strategy from the loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago to get the win and advance to the conference championship. What will they do?
OFFENSE

Trent Williams replaces Austen Pleasants. Shanahan had to devote resources in pass protection to help Pleasants and did not run wide left behind him once. Williams won’t need help, enabling the Niners to send more receivers on routes to scheme targets open, and running left will be essential.
Jake Tonges, Kyle Juszczyk, and Luke Farrell replace George Kittle. The running game finally succeeded when Kittle returned to full health. Without him, the Niners will probably struggle. Six offensive linemen isn’t an option given the lack of depth, so Farrell will need to step up. Tonges and Juszczyk can have success and will be targeted, the latter on chip and release plays.
Ricky Pearsall is in. Pearsall has been practicing this week and expects to play. Is he in sufficient health to be a factor or just a decoy? Either way, he extends the defense, and Shanahan needs to create more space in the passing game.
Running strategy – Klay Kubiak says the Niners need to force Seattle to load the box to stop the run, but how? Left behind Williams with Jauan Jennings as an outside blocker, north-south gap scheme behind Dominic Puni, but can they find consistent success with that? The Niners have to try to establish the run, but the Seahawks have the best run defense in the league. Run gains over five yards will be difficult and limited.
Play calling – Part of the reason the offense struggled two weeks ago against Seattle was the lack of success on early downs, forcing third and long. Against Philadelphia last week, the Niners ran on first often with Christian McCaffrey averaging 1.4 yards per carry. They must throw on first in this game; the offense can’t afford to dig a hole and play too often behind the sticks on second and third.
Passing strategy – Two weeks ago, Seattle avoided their base defense and played condensed inside the numbers to deny in-breaking routes. To counter that, Brock Purdy needs to take what the defense gives him, stay patient, and use a horizontal game. This time they need to set up blockers to enable YAC. Quick screens, tunnel screens, chip and release.
Last week, Shanahan used misdirection and throwing to the back side for explosive plays, but that was attacking Eagles weaknesses. Seattle has no weak starters on defense.
I would roll Purdy out more often to buy additional time for routes and to enable him to see the field better. Purdy’s decision making will need to be crisp on when to leave the pocket.
With the attention that McCaffrey draws as a receiver, Shanahan may look to leverage gravity and utilize him as a decoy for key conversions. The Niners need to create space and YAC. Using McCaffrey and Pearsall as decoys to draw defenders will have to be part of that, along with trying to set up both in man situations.
INJURIES

Sam Darnold is listed as questionable with an oblique injury. He says there’s close to a zero percent chance that he won’t play. An oblique can limit him as a scrambler and cause some pain during his throwing motion.
The Seahawks get starting LT Charles Cross back for this game, along with safety Coby Bryant. Backups LT Josh Jones and TE Elijah Arroyo are out.
For the Niners, Fred Warner is out, but could play next week and is traveling with the team, which will inspire his teammates. George Kittle, Tatum Bethune, and Ji’Ayir Brown are out. Dee Winters returned to practice this week but was limited; his status is questionable.
DEFENSE

Eric Kendricks replaces Tatum Bethune. This is an upgrade. Kendricks was one of the heroes in the win at Philadelphia with ten tackles and a pass breakup to end the game. Bethune had his worst game of the year against Seattle with poor pursuit angles and several missed tackles. Kendricks did a good job in team communication, pursuit, and error-free tackling.
Garrett Wallow may replace Dee Winters. Wallow was also an upgrade in angles and tackling; he led the team with 11 tackles in Philly.
Marques Sigle replaces Ji’Ayir Brown. 4.37 in, 4.65 out. Sigle had eight tackles after coming in as an injury replacement in the second quarter. He made an impact with a run blitz stop of Saquon Barkley and a powerful open-field tackle of DeVonta Smith. More team speed will be needed against Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed. Lumen Field will be a fast track with dry weather all this week in Seattle.
Upton Stout all game. The slot DB had a near pick six of Jalen Hurts with a 4th down pass breakup. Stout left the last Seattle game early with an injury. If he can play all 60 minutes, that will be key. Stout is improving rapidly and can make an argument as the Niners best cover corner.
Strategic changes. Two weeks ago, Saleh opened with two high safeties and then shifted to one safety down in the second half, and it was effective. I’d expect him to open with that this time and go single high.
The run defense issue was poor pursuit angles, worse tackling, and an inability to shed blocks. Kendricks and Wallow improve all of that. I’d expect that technique work on better hand usage to shed blocks was a coaching emphasis this week.
For pass defense, the Niners will rely on the speed of Stout and Sigle. I expect the Seahawks to take more deep shots in this game.
Saleh said in his media session this week that the defense needs to do a better job with leakage (missed tackles) on early downs and get better on 3rd down. He seems to be hinting at blitzing more often on third.
Prediction

The Niners have a path in the air with Purdy rollouts, more receivers in routes, decoy targets, and creative screens. Running will be hard-earned yards, hoping that running behind Williams wide left can spring a few gains of at least ten yards.
Defense is primarily personnel changes at linebacker leading to better angles, shedding blocks, and making tackles, more speed with Sigle and Stout, and more success early to set up blitzing on third and long.
Turnovers, people dismiss interceptions due to the lack of a pass rush. Fumbles people, fumbles. The Niners need punchouts. Sam Darnold fumbled on no contact. That’s the path to short fields.
The Niners can definitely win this game, but their execution has to be opportunistic and mistake-free. Red zone defense to deny touchdowns will be critical. Seattle has more paths to the win. They are the team that can run and stop the run; the Niners can’t do both consistently. To me, that’s the margin of victory.
Seahawks 24 49ers 20
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Tom Jensen covered the San Francisco 49ers from 1985-87 for KUBA-AM in Yuba City, part of the team’s radio network. He won two awards from UPI for live news reporting. Tom attended 49ers home games and camp in Rocklin. He grew up a Niners fan starting in 1970, the final year at Kezar. Tom also covered the Kings when they first arrived in Sacramento, and served as an online columnist writing on the Los Angeles Lakers for bskball.com. He grew up in the East Bay, went to San Diego State undergrad, a classmate of Tony Gwynn, covering him in baseball and as the team’s point guard in basketball. Tom has an MBA from UC Irvine with additional grad coursework at UCLA. He's writing his first science fiction novel, has collaborated on a few screenplays, and runs his own global jazz/R&B website at vibrationsoftheworld.com. Tom lives in Seattle and hopes to move to Tracktown (Eugene, OR) in the spring.
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