Bear Digest

Lack of confidence in Bears widespread except where it matters most

Analysis: The Bears remain undeterred by the narratives about how lucky they have been, while at the same time the Patriots rarely are questioned after playing a weaker schedule.
Gene Chamberlain|
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye runs the ball against the Bears last season at Soldier Field.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye runs the ball against the Bears last season at Soldier Field. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears beat the Philadelphia Eagles on their own field and have won nine out of 10.

Yet, there is this popular narrative about how they'll be lucky to even get into the playoffs.

On the other hand, there is very little said about Mike Vrabel's New England Patriots being overrated or a fraud team.

The latest example of this is a list of odds to win the Super Bowl put out by Fox Sports.

If you're a Bears fan don't bother looking. They aren't a top 10 team.

The Patriots are top seeds in the AFC but are fifth most likely team to win it. So there is apparently some skepticism about New England, but fifth most likely is much better than being left off the top 10 entirely.

If you're basing who belongs in the list based on who you played, the Patriots' opponents are 53-105. They have a .335 winning percentage. The Bears' list of opponents is better, not by a lot but it is. They're 54-90-1 or .372. And after this week's game that will climb greatly after facing another winning team.

The Patriots played four teams .500 or better, the Bears six when this week is over.

Much of the favoritism toward New England is because of Drake Maye, but how good is he really? His stats came against a weak schedule, just like Caleb Williams' did. Except it was a worse schedule than Williams has faced.

The Patriots played six teams with defenses ranked 22nd or worse.

Compared to Caleb Williams, Maye has played against one less bad defense. The Patriots have played eight teams with four wins or less, the Bears seven. The Bears beat the Steelers and Raiders. The Patriots did not.

Maye's stats are undeniably better than Williams' are, but the Bears don't need to rely totally on Williams' passing because the Bears have a better running game. They're second in rushing, the Patriots are only 20th in rushing.

Then there are the defenses. No one takes the ball away like the Bears do. It's often said this is unsustainable, yet they keep doing it. They even took it from Philadelphia, which never gives it up.

The bottom line is if the Patriots rank fifth best chance, certainly the Bears should be in the top 10 somewhere as the top NFC seed.

Apparently, it's just one more opinion the Bears can reverse if they care. It doesn’t sound lik they do.

“They’ll probably say whatever they have to say, but that really doesn’t phase us," Williams said after the last win. "That really doesn’t really deal with us. We have no expectation other than to go in, work hard, give our best effort on Sundays and every once in a while, Friday maybe. But, give our best effort and try and come out victorious.

"Other than that, the outside noise, everybody’s expectations, everybody’s thoughts. We could care less.”

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.