One reason Bears could upset Rams in NFC Divisional Round

Here's why the Chicago Bears can't be counted out against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round.

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The Chicago Bears are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams for Sunday's NFC Divisional Round matchup, and even the most die-hard Bears fan understands why.

The Rams were supposed to be here. Long considered a team that could make a Super Bowl run in 2025, Matthew Stafford and Los Angeles' high-octane offense looks every bit the part like the NFC representative on Super Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Bears have risen from the ashes of a five-win team in 2024. They're this year's Cinderella story; the team no one saw coming.

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Under Ben Johnson's leadership, and thanks to seven fourth-quarter comeback wins orchestrated by quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears are back in a big way.

And, believe it or not, there is a chance they even win this game.

According to ESPN's Seth Walder, Chicago is a very real threat to the Rams' Super Bowl aspirations.

He outlined his reason why.

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"What makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself," Walder wrote. "In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) -- both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. The Bears will be home underdogs against the Rams, and Los Angeles' offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears' defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They'll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it's doable."

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It's true that it still doesn't feel like the Chicago Bears are clicking on all cylinders. But it's also true that we're really late in the game to use that as a source of optimism. Chicago might just be who they are right now. They might need another offseason of fine-tuning before we get the best version of Ben Johnson's Bears.

However, never say never. Perhaps this team locks in, plays mistake-free football, executes at a higher level than they did against the Packers, and snags a few timely turnovers. If the Bears do that, and when factoring in the frigid temps at Soldier Field, Matthew Stafford and the Rams will be in big trouble.

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