Predicting the Path the Bears Will Take to an NFC North Championship

Before the start of the 2026 NFL season, I said that the Chicago Bears faced a long road to a second division title. The NFC North was expected to be the toughest division in the league, but after nine weeks of football it's looking more like the toughest division in NFL history. Nevertheless, the Bears currently stand atop the crowd with a 7-2 record and are well on their way to meeting my preseason prediction of a 12-5 record.

That makes this a good opportunity to look ahead at the second half of the Bears' 2026 schedule and chart a course to winning the NFC North. Obviously, winning out would do the trick, but that's not a realistic expectation. Instead, let's go game by game and predict the winner, and whether that will be enough to rise above their division rivals.

Week 11 vs New Orleans Saints: WIN

Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze runs with the ball in a game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The NFC South is a joke this year, and the Saints are no exception. Despite a strong finish to the 2025 season, they've been generally bad and second-year quarterback Tyler Shough has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Bears will be coming off their bye week and playing at home. This will be the get-right game Caleb Williams needs after his career-worst four-pick game in Week 9.

Week 12 at Detroit Lions: LOSS

Chicago Bears RB D'Andre Swift carries the ball against the Detroit Lions. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Lions have somewhat surprised me so far this season. Their offensive line solidified faster than I expected, and that has kept the offense running at a high clip. Even with the addition of Jeffery Simmons, the Bears' will struggle to slow down Jared Goff and the Lions' offense. It will be close, but with home field advantage on a short week, I'm giving this Thanksgiving showdown to the Lions.

Week 13 vs Jacksonville Jaguars: WIN

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams scrambles against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

I've said before that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the AFC version of the Chicago Bears, and that makes this game difficult to predict. Both offenses are led by elite quarterbacks with genius play-callers, and each defense has enough firepower to give most teams absolute fits. Similar to the previous game, I'm giving the edge to the home team here, especially with the Bears getting some extra rest off of a mini-bye.

On a related note, there's a decent chance that this game will be a Super Bowl preview.

Week 14 at Miami Dolphins: WIN

Chicago Bears WR Jahdae Walker runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Miami Dolphins are 1-7 and may be without starting quarterback Malik Willis, who landed on IR last week, in this one. I don't feel the need to justify this prediction any further than that.

Week 15 at Buffalo Bills: LOSS

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen under center against the Chicago Bears. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

You can almost copy what I said about the Bears-Jaguars game and put it here. Super Bowl preview. Two elite quarterbacks. Brilliant head coaches. Defenses doing just enough to get wins. This may be the game of the year at Highmark Stadium, and in keeping with my prediction trends, I'm giving the edge to the home team.

Week 16 vs Green Bay Packers: WIN

In my preseason predictions of the Bears' most important games of the 2026 season, I said that this Christmas Day showdown would likely decide the division winner, and I stand by that prediction today. The Packers have done extremely well given their injury situations this year, and they've been winning despite a historically bad running game.

However, these improbable wins won't last. Teams have to be able to run the ball well to win in December and January, especially at open-air stadiums like Soldier Field. I expect Chicago's defensive line to dominate Green Bay's offensive line, stuffing the run and making Jordan Love's life miserable for 60 minutes, while Chicago's running backs go for over 200 yards and multiple scores in a gritty, old-school win for the Bears.

Week 17 vs Detroit Lions: WIN

After three straight losses to his former team, this is where Ben Johnson will finally defeat Dan Campbell and the Lions. With the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff field likely still within reach, the Bears will win their second consecutive division game at Soldier Field, but don't expect it to be pretty.

Week 18 at Minnesota Vikings: WIN

Chicago Bears RB Kyle Monangai runs the ball against the Minnesota Vikings. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is a tough one to predict. The Vikings' trade for Kirk Cousins has completely reset expectations for their moribund offense, and I'm not sure how it will look. Furthermore, one or both of these teams could have already secured a playoff berth by this point and may rest starters. That said, I don't think any NFC North team will sweep a single one of their rivals this year, so I'm marking this a win for the Bears.

Record Prediction: 13-4

After a 7-2 start for the Bears and seeing just how far Caleb Williams has grown in his second year with Ben Johnson, I'm picking the Bears to surpass my 12-5 preseason prediction, finishing with a 13-4 record.

And now for the million-dollar question: will a 13-4 record be enough to win the NFC North? It's insane to say this, but that remains to be seen. It certainly ought to be good enough to win, especially if the Bears win three of their four remaining divisional games, but never say never with this division.

— Sign up for the Bears OnSI newsletter for more free coverage from Chicago Bears on SI —

Add us as a preferred source on Google