Six Boom-or-Bust Prospects the Bears Could Pick in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft

The annual NFL draft is always a bit of a guessing game, especially once you move outside of the first five picks or so. The Chicago Bears will be making the 25th selection, unless they execute one of these trade-up or trade-down scenarios, and that could pose a major challenge. This is a team that probably punched above its weight last season, clinching the 2025 NFC North championship despite preseason projections of failure, and they need to add at least two bona fide playmakers in the draft to be considered contenders in 2026.

This situation could tempt general manager Ryan Poles to take a big swing on one of these boom-or-bust prospects. All of them have the upside to help take the Bears back to the Promised Land, but there's an equally large chance that they flame out quickly. Let's rank these prospects by risk, starting with the riskiest.

1. Malachi Lawrence - Defensive End, UCF

Lawrence's draft stock has been climbing in recent weeks, and now there's a chance he hears his name called on the first night of the draft. It's easy to see his NFL potential. He's big and fast, with long arms, too. However, the quality of his opponents in college leaves one wondering whether he can handle the jump to the NFL. The tape looks good, but will he be able to do to three-time All-Pro Penei Sewell what he was doing to the offensive tackles at Jacksonville State? Lawrence represents a big bet on traits, and I'm not sure the Bears can afford to take that bet.

Malachi Lawrence has been brought up as a Round 1 fit for many teams by multiple guests on the show but @MoveTheSticks said he’s heard the Dallas Cowboys could be a surprise landing spot for him if they stick with their two first rounders. https://t.co/8y9lco6iGo pic.twitter.com/xWJ10LCh3J
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 20, 2026

2. Caleb Banks - Defensive Tackle, Florida

If Banks had spent the last year and a half healthy, he would likely be going in the Top 5 of the draft, and the Bears wouldn't even be able to consider him. Unfortunately, he's suffered three separate foot injuries since the end of the 2024 season, including right before the NFL Combine last month. He has perennial Pro Bowl potential if he can stay healthy, and his draft stock was helped by a star performance at the Senior Bowl, but there's no better ability than availability.

3. Jordyn Tyson - Receiver, Arizona State

Like Banks, a clean bill of health would have Tyson going in the Top 10 of the draft, potentially Top 5. However, there's a very good chance that he'll miss multiple games every season in the NFL. The Bears will likely be tempted to take him if he's available at No. 25, and he would give Chicago the best trio of receivers in the league, but that injury history is a massive red flag.

4. Kadyn Proctor - Offensive Tackle, Alabama

I said last week that targeting a left tackle in Round 1 would be a big mistake for the Bears, and I stand by that assessment, especially when you look at the prospects who will likely be available. Proctor is a mammoth presence, standing six-foot-seven and weighing over 350 pounds. Trying to move Proctor off his spot would be a challenge even for NFL defensive ends. However, they could likely go right around him.

Speed is just as important to an NFL offensive tackle as strength, and Proctor just doesn't have that. The defensive ends he'll face at the next level aren't just powerful. They're fast and can bend at angles that almost seem impossible. Proctor's massive size may be able to bail him out sometimes, but there's a very real chance that he'll frequently be left grabbing air as NFL pass rushers blow right by him.

5. Zion Young - Defensive End, Missouri

Young has been linked to the Bears for months now, and it's easy to see why. He's got terrific size and plays with a white-hot motor that never stops, and that made him a dominant force in college, but you need more than strength and aggression to succeed in the NFL. Young never seemed to develop a repertoire of pass rush moves or counters, and that could leave him stonewalled in the NFL, where everyone is big, strong, and fast. Luckily, this deficiency is one of the more easily coachable ones. I would trust Dennis Allen to get the most out of Young as a prospect, but there's still a chance that he never excels in that department.

6. Akheem Mesidor

Mesidor's biggest strength is simultaneously his biggest weakness. At 25-years-old, he's almost certainly a finished product. He should be able to handle the transition to the NFL more easily than anyone else on this list, but his upside is capped. What you see is what you get, and that's concerning.

Sure, Mesidor had a banner year in 2025 and looked the part of a dominant pass rusher. But I have a hard time trusting defensive ends who didn't truly break out until they were several years older than most of their competition. The next time Mesidor sees the field, he won't be facing a 19-year-old college sophomore who hasn't yet got that 'grown man strength'. There's also an injury history to worry about, though it's not as dire as Banks' or Tyson's.

I concede that I'm in the minority on this debate, and I can see why the Bears would be interested in a player who can make an impact now instead of in two or three years. I even have the Bears taking Mesidor in my full first-round mock draft. I'm just not convinced that the impact he'll have in the NFL will be close to the impact he had in his final year with Miami.

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