Major Analysts Pick Joe Burrow to Win Top NFL Award Entering 2026 NFL Season

Joe Burrow is one of the leading candidates to win the 2026 NFL MVP award entering this season, and two major analysts think he'll lift the trophy at NFL Honors next February.

ESPN's Mina Kimes and Ben Solak both picked the Bengals quarterback to win his first MVP award during the latest Mina Kimes Show Featuring Lenny.

Double Pick

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) walks between drills during the first day of Cincinnati Bengals training camp at the Paycor Stadium practice facility in downtown Cincinnati on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Burrow has the fifth-best consensus betting odds to win the award at +1000.

"If he does have a completely healthy season, I think the floor on a Burrow season with basically the offense being entirely the same, the offensive line being sneaky decent, and kind of hammering all offseason makes me think that he's got a really good shot at it," Kimes said. "According to the FTN Fantasy Almanac, they have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL this year.

"So I just feel like everything is in place. There's no contract drama with the wide receivers. Mentioned the offensive line. Defense, I feel like the pass defense will be sufficient, but it'll still be the story of the season. It will still be 'Oh, Joe Burrow and this crappy offensive line, this crappy defense,' even though it's improved. So I just went back and forth between him and (Justin) Herbert. I understand the Herbert optimism, and I guess my feeling was like, if that happens though, do you think the story will be Justin Herbert or do you think the story will be (offensive coordinator) Mike McDaniel? And that was kind of where I ended up thinking, because like I said, this is a very narrative-driven award."

Burrow likely would've won MVP following the 2024 season if Cincinnati had any defense with a pulse.

His team finished 9-8 that campaign, despite Burrow pacing the league in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43). He also posted just the third quarterback season in NFL history with at least 4,500 yards, 40 touchdowns, and fewer than 10 interceptions.

Cincinnati's defense ranked 25th overall and kept him from getting any first-place votes.

Solak also sees that changing this coming season.

"You're not going to get like Al Golden hype. You're not going to get Dexter Lawrence Defensive Player of the Year," Solak stated. "Like even if they're doing incredible things, like that's just not how those awards get handed out. And one of the number one greatest predictors we have for which quarterback wins MVP is just generic team success. Right? 15 last 16 winners were quarterbacks. Of those 15, 14 were the first or second playoff seed out of their conference."

Enter the easiest schedule in the league by most metrics, including FTN mentioned by Kimes above.

ESPN's FPI agrees, placing Cincinnati's slate as the easiest schedule for any NFL team.

Getting off to a strong start and avoiding the uphill climb to contention that's struck this team all decade is key. If Cincinnati starts 3-0, including a win over the Texans and their vaunted defense, then the narrative could reach terminal velocity by December.

Health is the biggest factor across the board. Burrow posts MVP numbers when he plays full seasons.

Check out the full discussion below:

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more on the Bengals, subscribe to our YouTube Channel and be sure to check us out on your favorite audio platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, and Amazon.

Add us as a preferred source on Google