Josh Allen's success relies heavily on one key Bills' variable

Reigning-MVP Josh Allen hasn't showed any signs of his production slowing down, but Henry McKenna of FOX Sports has identified what could go wrong for the Buffalo Bills' offense in 2025, disrupting Allen's unprecedented success in the 2020s.

McKenna cited the offensive line's potential decline as a factor that could prevent Allen from finding the same level of success and efficiency as he did in 2024.

He explained, "The offense ran as much around its big guys as it did around Allen. Buffalo's MVP QB made plenty of explosive plays (and made up for his lack of explosive playmakers), but it was the offensive linemen clearing a path for the ground game that really made this offense hum. That's probably why [James] Cook's contract standoff isn't going well. The Bills think they can replicate their success with a different back."

Buffalo's offensive line — Buffalo Bills Jacob Bayer, Sedrick Van-Pran-Granger, Tylan Grable, Alec Anderson, Dion Dawkins and Connor McGovern line up and stretch during their voluntary workout at their practice facility on May 27, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, and Spencer Brown make up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. In addition to talent, the unit has been healthy at an unprecedented rate, with Brown missing one game last season, the extent of the group's injuries in 2024. Depth from Alec Anderson, Tylan Grable, and Ryan Van Demark give the Bills solid depth if the injury bug were to bite the Aaron Kromer-coached unit in 2025.

"If the big guys fail to win with the same authority in the trenches, then this offense loses what it does best. And I'm not sure the Bills have enough firepower in the passing game to make up for it," writes McKenna.

Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins departed this offseason, but Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore were signed to offset the losses in the wide receiver room. The team doesn't have a true number one receiver within their 'everybody eats' philosophy, but the emergence of one could help make Allen's job easier in 2025.

Dion Dawkins leads James Cook — Oct 26, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) follows a block by offensive tackle Dion Dawkins (73) in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

"Since the departure of Stefon Diggs, Buffalo's offense has reconfigured itself in creative ways. Running back James Cook has been a true featured back. [Khalil] Shakir has a Julian Edelman-esque way about him. But Allen has had to do an inordinate amount of work to make things happen, which was how he won MVP last season despite unimpressive passing numbers."

Allen's "unimpressive passing numbers" included 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns, both of which were the lowest marks for him since his sophomore season. His efficiency was illustrated with his league-leading 77.3 QBR and passer rating of 101.4, the second-highest of his career.

Keon Coleaman and Shakir were identified as two players who could emerge as a true top receiver for Allen. "As a rookie last season, Coleman didn't appear particularly close to asserting himself as a top-flight wideout. It was actually Shakir who did that, even from the slot. But Coleman has the traits while Shakir doesn't," analyzes McKenna.

Coleman's rookie campaign included 29 receptions, 556 yards, and four touchdowns, all while dealing with a nagging wrist injury from Week 9. Shakir set career highs with 100 targets, 76 receptions, 821 yards, four touchdowns, and 35 first downs. While McKenna acknowledges that he led the receiving corps, "even from the slot," other true number one receivers operate in the slot, including Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown and LA's Cooper Kupp.

McKenna concludes, "For Allen to throw for more than 4,000 yards again, like he did four straight years with Diggs around, a Bills pass-catcher needs to establish himself as a centerpiece of the offensive game plan."

Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Dion Dawkins, and Spencer Brown celebrate — Bills Khalil Shakir is congratulated by teammates Keon Coleman, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown on his touchdown catch during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 8, 2024. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

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