Buffalo Bills' 2026 Projected Win Total is Stunning

There’s no way around it: the Buffalo Bills’ 2025 season was a massive disappointment.

Although the Bills made the playoffs, they failed to win the division and took a step back from their 2024 playoff finish. As a result, they fired their head coach, brought in a new regime and are expecting much improvement through a transitional offseason.

How things work out remains to be seen. But one sportsbook has already projected the Bills to finish near the top of the league.

New Bills head coach Joe Brady talks about some of his vision as coach at the Bills field house in Orchard Park on Jan. 29, 2026. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The odds

According to DraftKings, the Bills are one of 11 teams with their win total set at 10.5 for the upcoming campaign. The Bills are -125 to earn over 10.5 wins, while they are +120 to earn under 10.5 wins.

Joining the Bills as teams with their total set at 10.5 are the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.

For reference, 11 teams finished with over 10.5 wins during the 2025 campaign, a list that included the Bills, Eagles, Chargers, Seahawks, Rams and 49ers. The New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears are the other teams who earned 11 wins or more this past season.

(Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

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Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) runs the ball during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Wild Card Round game at EverBank Stadium. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Track record

Buffalo hasn’t recorded fewer than 11 wins since the 2019 season. Their average win total since 2020 is 12 per season, making them a safe bet to cash an over bet based upon where things are set at this point.

However, in order to surpass that mark, the Bills will have to adjust on the fly, as they will enter the ’26 season with new head coach Joe Brady at the helm and a new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard, under him.

Buffalo has made several other changes to its coaching staff, while other personnel moves are sure to be on the way in the near future. The Bills have Josh Allen at quarterback, which is a significant benefit for any team. But if the ’25 season proved anything, it’s that the Bills will need more to continue their stretch of high-level performance.