Buffalo Bills must stop Patriots' explosive RB to earn critical AFC East win

After two consecutive strong performances, the Buffalo Bills’ run defense has another opportunity to prove its might against one of the league’s most potent offenses.

The New England Patriots have primarily relied upon their passing game to guide them to an 11-2 start to the season. Still, the Patriots’ running game has been productive at times and has the potential to explode for a big game at any time.

And at the center of New England’s rushing success this season has been TreVeyon Henderson, who has been the team’s most efficient running back this year.

Henderson’s impact

The Patriots also come equipped with Rhamondre Stevenson as part of their backfield crew, but it’s been Henderson who has taken the bull by the horns since Stevenson was forced to exit the lineup beginning in Week 9.

During Stevenson’s three-week absence, Henderson’s snap count elevated to 82.5%, his yards per carry average swelled to 6.9, and he totaled five touchdowns. However, since Stevenson returned to the lineup in Week 12, as Next Gen Stats pointed out, Henderson played just 64.2% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps in Week 12 and 47.6% of the snaps in Week 13.

Though, despite the decrease in playing time, Henderson has continued to make an impact, averaging 4.5 yards per carry over the past two games before New England’s Week 14 bye. He has also been a factor in the passing game, recording at least three receptions in four of his last five games.

During the Patriots' Week 5 win over the Bills, Henderson finished with just six carries for 24 yards. But he has since become a much more crucial piece for New England offensively.

MORE: Buffalo Bills have golden opportunity to exploit Patriots' fading run 'D' in Week 15

Advanced statistics

One of Henderson’s strengths this season has been his growing tendency to force missed tackles. And that could spell trouble for the Bills.

Per Next Gen Stats, the first-year pro has forced a missed tackle on 27.9% of his carries this season, which is the 10th-highest among 41 running backs with at least 100 carries. On the other side of the coin, the Bills have recorded the fifth-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL against designed runs this season (16%).

For the Bills' much-improved run defense to keep the Patriots’ running game in check, it will start with getting bodies to the football when it’s in Henderson’s hands and subsequently wrapping up in an effort to not allow him to escape and create extra yardage.

Linebacker Shaq Thompson has made a significant difference for the Buffalo run defense since being inserted into the team’s starting lineup at middle linebacker, and he must continue to deliver consistent production against opposing running backs to give the Bills their best chance of creating a challenging environment for the New England ground attack.

All eyes will be on Drake Maye and the New England aerial assault on Sunday. But the Bills must not forget about Henderson's game-breaking ability.

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