How Bills 2026 Schedule Compares to Patriots, Including Win-Loss Projections

Following Thursday’s NFL schedule release, the Buffalo Bills have been left with a mighty challenging 2026 slate of games that places them eighth in terms of strength of schedule.

When you look at how the Bills’ schedule shapes up against those of their AFC East foes, the New England Patriots, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, you’ll find that Buffalo may not have it so bad.

Based on 2025-2026 win percentage, the Miami Dolphins [.542 opponent win percentage] have the second-most difficult schedule in the NFL, while the Patriots also come in two spots ahead of the Bills at No. 6, with their opponents holding a 2025 win percentage of .531. So while the Bills’ eight upcoming matchups with playoff teams from a year ago may appear impossible on paper, there are those, even as close as Buffalo’s division, that may have a more difficult road this season.

Breaking it down

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) scores a touchdown against the Patriots. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

When you look at the Bills’ schedule, their most challenging stretches of the season will come in Weeks 1 through 5, then later during Weeks 12 through 16. Over those 10 games, Buffalo will take on all eight meetings with ‘25 playoff teams [Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots twice, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos], while also facing off with 2026 playoff hopefuls, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.

In between those two extended runs of tough competition, Buffalo will take on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8, which should be another tall task. The Bills should be heavily favored in the remainder of their slate, including matchups with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6, the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9, and two apiece with the New York Jets [Weeks 10 and 18] and Miami Dolphins [Weeks 11 and 17]. Outside of those six games against the Raiders, Vikings and two each vs. Miami and New York, there won’t be much rest for the weary.

Around the division

Jets, Dolphins — New York Jets defensive back Jordan Clark (33) and Miami Dolphins defensive back Jack Jones pose for a photo following the week 14 football game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium. | Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With that said, the Patriots are facing what could be viewed as an even more threatening gauntlet in 2026. New England also opens with a string of matchups that are unfavorable to say the least. With their head coach amid controversy, the Patriots will face off with the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the season opener, followed by three other playoff teams from last year—the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Bills.

New England and Buffalo split their two matchups last season.

Later in the year, New England will play the Bears in Week 7, the Packers and Lions in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively, the Chargers and Bills in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively, then the Chiefs in Week 15 and the Broncos in Week 17, when they may be challenging the Bills for the divisional lead.

I don’t think it’s worth diving headfirst into the Jets' or Dolphins’ schedules, as both teams are in rebuild mode and it would be shocking to see either one exceed six wins this season. At the end of the 2026 campaign, I expect Jets head coach Aaron Glenn to be out of a job and the Dolphins to hold the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft.

OK, back to the Patriots.

More challenges

Munich NFL — Nov 10, 2024; Munich, Germany; A large helmet with the 2024 NFL Munich Game logo at Allianz Arena. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

When you dive deeper, another challenging aspect of the Patriots’ schedule is their midseason trip overseas to take on Detroit in a game to be played in Munich, Germany. That 4,000-mile trip, along with a few other extended trips, will force New England to travel nearly 8,000 more air miles than the Bills will in 2026, according to research from Bookies.

I also find the Patriots’ schedule more challenging because they will open with three of their first four games on the road, including a trip to Seattle to start the year. Buffalo does have a tall task ahead in traveling to Houston for a Week 1 tilt before returning home to Orchard Park for a Thursday night matchup to open the new Highmark Stadium against the Lions. But the Bills’ three games following the Texans matchup are all at home.

The Patriots have several games in standalone windows, including their trip to Munich as well as two games slated for Sunday Night Football, two on Thursday Night Football and another on Monday Night Football. It should also be noted that the time and location of New England’s final two games, against the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins, have yet to be determined.

That being said, the Bills’ six games in national TV windows equal those of their longtime rival. The Bills will have two games on Thursday Night Football, one of which is on Thanksgiving, two on Monday Night Football, one on Sunday Night Football, a Saturday night matchup and a game on Christmas. So, both teams will be forced to perform under the bright lights on many occasions this year.

Season projections

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the first half at Gillette Stadium. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

At the end of the day, it’s difficult to determine which team has the advantage. The Patriots have a tougher strength of schedule, but the Bills’ schedule has two periods in which they have several consecutive games against high-level competition.

At this point, I believe 11-6 is a good prediction for the Bills’ record, while I would project the Patriots to finish the year 10-7. The season-opener against Seattle could get ugly for New England, which proved to be a paper tiger down the stretch of last year’s postseason. I also think the Bills will sweep the Patriots this year, which will lead to New England missing the playoffs.

Josh Allen and Drake Maye should once again be near the top of the list of candidates for potential MVP honors. However, both players will have to guide their team through a difficult 2026 schedule if they hope to finish the year atop the heap, both within the division and conference.

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