Many Signs Indicate Regression Coming for Bills' James Cook, His Fantasy Owners in 2026

It’s that point of the offseason where many fans have taken a break from concerning themselves with the stresses associated with rooting for their favorite football team, but not fantasy football fans.

Despite it being the slow part of the NFL calendar, those who both root for the Bills and play fantasy sports may be wondering what’s going to happen with James Cook in 2026, when signs are starting to point toward last year’s rushing champion experiencing a regression.

It was a phenomenal season for Cook in 2025, but with a new head coach, a few new offensive pieces and other factors playing into his future in the Bills’ backfield, projecting the 26-year-old’s upcoming campaign is an intriguing proposition.

Historic season

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) runs the ball during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Cook is coming off one of the best seasons put forth by a Bills running back in half a century, as he became the first rushing champion from Buffalo since the 1976 campaign. He finished the year averaging 5.2 yards per attempt [YPA], which was second-best in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane [5.7 YPA].

Cook earned second-team All-Pro honors but received a rushing grade of 84.3, which was ninth-best in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. There’s no question he is an ascending talent, but there are a few reasons to believe his production will take a dip in 2026.

Cause for pause

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis (22) before an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

One of which is the change coming to the Buffalo offensive line, including switches at starting left guard and swing tackle after the free-agent departures of David Edwards and Ryan Van Demark, respectively. The Bills have a few options to replace both players, including Alec Anderson and free-agent acquisition Austin Corbett at guard, and Bills 2026 fourth-round pick Jude Bowry at tackle.

Additionally, Buffalo lost fullback Reggie Gilliam, who signed with the rival New England Patriots in free agency. He was a significant part of the Bills’ rushing attack, serving as an effective lead blocker for Cook the past few years.

Also, with Joe Brady taking over, there have been rumors that the Bills may elect to run and gun a bit more while playing an increasingly free-flowing style under their first-year head coach. Buffalo traded for DJ Moore this offseason and drafted Skyler Bell in the fourth round, and appears to have big plans in store for both players.

Lastly, I previously wrote that third-year running back Ray Davis' role is up in the air, and if he sees an increase in action offensively, it may impact Cook.

A projection

While I do not doubt Cook’s talent, there is cause for concern when it comes to the road in front of him entering 2026. He recorded a career-high 1,621 yards rushing last year, but I think it’s reasonable to expect him to fail to live up to that high-water mark in the upcoming campaign.

Not only was that simply a lofty number, but Cook also carried the ball a whopping 309 times in ’26, another career high and 102 more times than the year before. I don’t think we see him used as often in the running game, resulting in a 20-30-carry drop and 200 to 300 fewer yards at the end of the year.

If I had to give a prediction, I would say 280 carries for 1,380 yards. With that said, Cook has had no trouble scoring touchdowns in recent seasons, totaling 32 [rushing and receiving] combined over the last two years, and I don’t see that changing much, if at all, as he has developed quite the nose for the end zone.

So while there may be some reduction coming for fantasy owners, Cook should remain one of the top-producing options in drafts over the next several months simply due to his touchdown production and his remaining significance as one of the most talented players on the Bills’ offense.

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