How Potential NFL Referee Lockout Could Harm Buffalo Bills in 2026

The NFL is having trouble negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Referees Association. At Sunday's league meetings, the league authorized staff to hire replacement officials in the coming weeks ahead of the agreement's ending on May 31.

The replacement officials will be from college football. "To expect people to jump from college to the pros and change in speed in that short of time is destined to be a challenge to succeed," a league source told ESPN. "We're not going to do that."

"There will be no panic, and we have begun preparations for the expiration. We have to do it. Otherwise, it would be just gross negligence." In 2012, during the last referee lockout, the league waited until July to prepare for replacements.

That said, the current negotiations could lead to more penalties being called on the Buffalo Bills, especially given the new defensive staff they have assembled.

Last referee lockout

Buffalo Bills cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson argue with the officials about White’s holding call, which came right after Johnson’s, during overtime at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17, 2026. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In 2012, the regular officials were absent for the first three weeks of the season, and replacement officials called a relatively high number of penalties, often leading to teams getting in their own way.

Replacement officials were responsible for two of the three most-penalized weeks of the season in terms of penalties accepted and two of the four highest weeks in penalty yardage. Weeks 2 and 3 took the cake in that regard, but even Week 1 was above season averages in both categories.

While the process the NFL is taking now may limit the number of flags thrown, there's still a chance the Bills could be penalized more often. However, it's unlikely to wash the memory of questionable calls during the divisional playoff game against the Denver Broncos.

The risk could be apparent with the defensive staff Buffalo has assembled.

Defensive aggressiveness

New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was the Broncos' defensive pass game coordinator for the past two seasons, and he previously spoke of an aggressive mentality for Buffalo's unit in 2026.

However, if his track record is any indication, there is risk with such an approach. Denver's defense, for which Leonhard worked under coordinator Vance Joseph, forced just 14 turnovers in 2025, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and struggled even more with penalties.

Denver's defense was the most penalized unit in the NFL last season in both total penalties (54) and penalty yardage (602). It was also called for pass interference most often, with 20 fouls for 350 yards.

Leonhard and the rest of Buffalo's defensive coaches must take the referee situation into account when calling plays to avoid costly penalties if a lockout extends deep into the 2026 season.