3 reasons Bills can beat Jaguars in wild-card round

It'll be a tall task for the Bills, but what'll allow them to win on Sunday?

Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first half at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills will be playing in the wild-card round on the road for the first time since the 2019 season, and they have a steep mountain to climb as they face the hottest team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

There are reasons to be optimistic for the Bills going into this game, though, and three stand out for Sunday's affair in Duval County.

1. Tight ends have a feast in front of them

Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Bills tight end Dawson Knox (88) carries the ball against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

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The Bills haven't used as much 13 personnel compared to earlier in the season in the wake of Dalton Kincaid's injuries, but when they do use their tight ends, their biggest strength in the passing game, they'll have a great matchup in front of them.

Jacksonville allowed the 10th-most yards to tight ends in the regular season, and Kincaid, Dawson Knox, who's picked up his play starting in December, and rookie Jackson Hawes should be able to provide Allen with safe throws throughout.

2. Josh Allen's mobility (if he's healthy)

Bills quarterback Josh Allen keeps the ball and runs around players during first-half action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 16, 2025 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Allen is dealing with a foot injury he suffered in Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns, but he'll be three weeks removed from that injury come kickoff on Sunday.

The Jaguars haven't been tested much against mobile quarterbacks and have only 32 sacks, the sixth-fewest in the NFL, so Allen will be able to dance circles around the Jacksonville defense if he's fully healthy.

3. Strength on strength when Jags pass

Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford celebrates sacking Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow during first-half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Dec. 7, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars only rank 12th in the NFL in passing yards per game at 223.3, but quarterback Trevor Lawrence has averaged about 21 more passing yards per game since Week 11, the start of Jacksonville's eight-game win streak.

Even though first-round rookie corner Maxwell Hairston will be out for this game, the Bills allowed the fewest passing yards per game at 156.9 in the regular season, so holding Lawrence and the Jags' passing game shouldn't be too difficult.

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