ESPN predicts ridiculous ending for Bills' season despite proven performance

One can think the Buffalo Bills have their best shot to win their first Super Bowl, even if it may be a steep climb from the wild card, especially with the Kansas City Chiefs out of the playoff picture.

However, ESPN doesn't seem to think so, as one of its Football Power Index's 10,000 simulations, highlighted by Seth Walder on Wednesday, sees the Bills collapsing spectacularly.

How far does ESPN's simulation see Bills going?

Nov 30, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) looks to pass as Bills defensive end AJ Epenesa (57) defends during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The simulation has the Bills dominating their final three regular-season games: against the Browns, Eagles and Jets by a combined score of 115-39. This leads Buffalo into a wild-card game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, a team the Bills beat up on in Week 13, 26-7.

The Bills held the Steelers to 166 yards of total offense, their third-fewest in the Mike Tomlin era, including just 58 on the ground. However, the simulation thinks that same thing will be their downfall.

"The big headline out of the AFC wild-card round? The fall of the Bills," Walder wrote. "Buffalo was shockingly dismantled by the Steelers 30-13 in Pittsburgh after the Bills' defense once again couldn't stop the run."

Nov 30, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) rushes and is tackled by Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

MORE: Sean McDermott reveals what allowed Bills' backup running back to become NFL leader

Buffalo's run defense is still allowing the third-most yards per game in the NFL at 143.1, and with the Steelers utilizing a different back more since that first game, things could change.

However, the focus has to be on the here and now for the Bills, and they can worry about how they match up against their likely playoff opponent when the time comes.

Nov 30, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Steelers running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) rushes as Bills linebacker Shaq Thompson (45) defends during the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Acrisure Stadium. | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

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