Expert panel split on Bills' chances in Sunday's postseason toss-up vs. Jaguars

It's a toss-up in nearly every sense of the word, including in the eyes of Sports Illustrated's weekly prediction panel.

The Buffalo Bills (12-5) opened the week as small 1.5-point road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) on the betting line, only to see the point spread move through zero with the home team now holding a 1.5-point edge on the DraftKings Sportsbook board.

The low, and fluctuating, spread suggests a near true 50-50 matchup between the Bills and Jaguars in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday time slot on NFL Wild Card Weekend.

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"We're going to have to be a tough football team. That's where it starts and you can't beat yourself. So, there's more to it than that. But, it's an important week for us here, obviously, and we've got a lot of work to do," said Bills' head coach Sean McDermott.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) rushes for yards during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28 | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As one would expect, the six-member SI prediction panel is even split while picking the winner of the January 11 matinee. Three experts selected the Bills while three others foresee a Jaguars' victory. All SI picks are straight up.

Statistically close, too

While the Bills' offense features the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack, the Jaguars' defense ranks first against the run.

Both teams' scoring outputs are similar. The Bills sit fourth amongst league leaders averaging 28.3 points per game. The Jaguars are two spots behind with a 27.9 ppg scoring clip.

Buffalo (+116) and Jacksonville (+138) are close in overall point differential this season, too.

The Bills do pose a stark contrast to the Jaguars in terms of postseason experience. Buffalo enters the playoffs for the seventh year in a row and eight time in nine seasons under McDermott. Bills' quarterback Josh Allen is 7-6 all-time in playoff starts while Trevor Lawrence is 1-1 for the Jaguars.