Three Likely Letdown Games on Buffalo Bills' 2026 Schedule

The Buffalo Bills' 2026 schedule was released Thursday evening. Although the opponents were known at the end of the regular season, the order of the games gives a clearer sense of how Buffalo's season may go.

The Bills had several games in which they were the better team on paper yet came up short in 2025, and this upcoming season's much more challenging schedule offers more opportunities for unexpected setbacks.

From what could be considered Buffalo's kryptonite to one of the most unique stretches in any team's schedule in recent memory, here are three games that present Buffalo with the biggest chances to let their fans down in 2026.

1 — Bills at Texans (Week 1)

Thursday night games are always weird in the NFL. An example was Buffalo's matchup against the Texans in Week 12. Josh Allen was sacked a career-high eight times in the Bills' 23-19 loss to a Texans team that was .500 at the time.

The Bills don't play Houston on a Thursday night this time around, but instead have one such game on the horizon with the first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. Also, Houston's defense that stifled Allen and Buffalo's offense is almost the same as 2025's.

Combine those facts with the Bills having won in Houston since 2006 (0-4 in the Josh Allen era including the playoffs), and there's a good chance Buffalo could be upset despite opening up as 1.5-point favorites.

2 — Bills at Green Bay Packers (Week 14)

This Sunday night game begins a stretch in which Buffalo will have back-to-back weeks with reduced rest, a physically demanding part of the schedule. Buffalo doesn't go on the road to face the Packers often, but its last trip there could bring back bad memories.

Buffalo's last trip to Green Bay was in Josh Allen's rookie season in 2018, and that matchup resulted in the only time he has been shut out in his career. When Micah Parsons is healthy, today's Packers defense is much better than the 2018 unit, similar to Buffalo's offense today.

This isn't the only game against the NFC North that could leave Bills fans guessing, though.

3 — Bills vs. Bears (Week 15)

Because the Packers and Bears are nonconference opponents, they presumably don't matter as much as games against AFC foes, and Buffalo could ignore Chicago mentally as well.

The Bills travel to Denver to play the Broncos on Christmas Eve in Week 16 with potentially significant implications for the AFC playoffs. Buffalo may be more focused on that game instead.

Buffalo looked flat in games against Atlanta, Miami and Houston in 2025, and their fans are hoping games like these don't give similar results in 2026 against a tougher schedule.

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