NFL Prediction Panel Down on Bills' Chances for Week 1 Road Win vs. Texans

The Buffalo Bills have lost to the Houston Texans on the road each of the past two seasons with Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, and the experts don't foresee a different outcome now that he's head coach.

The Bills will visit the Texans for the third year in a row. This time, it's for the season opener on September 13. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS in what is arguably the best game on Sunday's slate.

When it comes to predicting the winner of the Week 1 matchup, Sports Illustrated's eight-member expert panel leans heavily in favor of the home team. Six of the eight pundits pick the Texans to win the game outright.

As always, the MMQB selections are straight up. When it comes to the point spread, Buffalo is a slight 1.5-point road favorite according to DraftKings.

Joe Brady, Josh Allen — Buffalo Bills wide receiver Ja'mori Maclin gets a greeting from quarterback Josh Allen who was watching the team warm up with head coach Joe Brady before the team’s preseason game against the Steelers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Aug. 27, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

For the record, Albert Breer and Mike Kadlick account for the 25 percent of MMQB panelists who are backing the Bills against the Texans in Week 1. A number of non-SI entities are also favoring Houston in the marquee matinee.

The Bills last opened the regular season on the road in 2023, falling to the New York Jets in overtime. In 2022, Buffalo won the opener over the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in Inglewood.

Correcting prior mistakes vs. Texans

The Bills have managed only 39 combined points during their last two trips to Houston.

"When you get your behind kicked, you don't forget it," said Bills' starting left tackle Dion Dawkins, who suffered a head injury during last year's loss.

In 2025, the pass protection was a problem as the Texans sacked quarterback Josh Allen eight times and pressured him throughout the 23-19 win.

"I can only speak offensively, but we obviously weren't good enough," said Brady. "Obviously, it's gonna be a huge test for us this week, but our guys are excited for it."

Not only will it be Brady's head coaching debut, the game marks the first time Buffalo deploys its remade defense under the direction of coordinator Jim Leonhard. The former Bills' safety will make the defensive calls from the sideline.

"We just gotta make sure we're locked into our details, and it's gonna be an incredible environment. It always is down there. Two good teams that were in the playoffs last year, but I don't know if that has any bearing this year. It'll be a great test for us," said Brady.

MMQB Game Picks (Week 1)
Bills at Texans

Albert Breer, senior reporter
Pick: Bills

Eva Geitheim, staff writer
Pick: Texans

Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Pick: Texans

Mike Kadlick, senior news writer
Pick: Bills

Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Pick: Texans

Conor Orr, senior writer
Pick: Texans

John Pluym, managing editor
Pick: Texans

Matt Verderame, staff writer
Pick: Texans

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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Correcting prior mistakes vs. Texans

MMQB Game Picks (Week 1)Bills at Texans

MMQB Game Picks (Week 1)
Bills at Texans