Here's Why Broncos Are Viewed as Vulnerable AFC West Champs

Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

After the Kansas City Chiefs produced an unprecedented nine-year reign in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos knocked them off the dais in 2025. The Chiefs won only six games, while the Broncos won 14, clinching the AFC West crown for the first time since 2015.

The question is, can the Broncos retain the division?

Now that the NFL schedules have dropped, pundits around the NFL have begun to express misgivings about the Broncos' path to repeat as division champs, citing a brutal schedule and the likelihood that 2025 was an anomaly for Kansas City. NFL.com's Kevin Patra is the latest, listing the Broncos as the fourth-most-vulnerable defending division champs.

"The Broncos have one of the best starting 22s in the NFL if [Bo] Nix stays healthy. The defense is menacing, as it can get after the quarterback, and the secondary is sticky. However, there are depth questions, and a few injuries to key players could create havoc. Squads led by defenses tend to regress to the mean year over year," Patra wrote.

Injury Concerns & Defensive Variance

The injury bug is a threat to any contender. That goes without saying. The Broncos aren't impervious to this reality, as evidenced by Nix's extremely inconveniently timed injury in the playoffs.

This is why head coach Sean Payton immediately specialized the team's strength and conditioning, sports science, and player wellness programs by hiring Beau Lowery out of the gates to serve as the vice president of player health & performance.

It hasn't made the Broncos immune, but they've been in far better shape than they were before Payton arrived health-wise, and are among the NFL's best in keeping their key players on the field. It has been a big reason for the team's turnaround.

Nix will be ready long before the regular season starts, and the Broncos plan to be cautious with him throughout the summer. There are concerns about his right ankle, especially given that this is the third time he's fractured it, but the signs coming out of his latest surgery have encouraged the Broncos that he'll be stronger than ever.

On Patra's point about defensive variance year to year, he's right. But under Vance Joseph, the Broncos have fielded a top defense in three straight years, leading the NFL in sacks in back-to-back seasons, which is very, very hard to do. Joseph returns as defensive coordinator, so I wouldn't worry too much about the unit regressing, though how the Broncos replace John Franklin-Myers upfront will be a key storyline to follow.

Let's see what else Patra wrote about the Broncos.

Live By the One-Score, Die By the One-Score

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after play during the second half against the New York Giants. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

"The Broncos won a whopping 11 games by one score in 2025, with several coming against opponents they should've walloped. With a tougher schedule, it’ll be harder to replicate that success," Patra wrote.

This is a genuine concern. It's actually more valid than the defensive variance, and the Chiefs are a great example. They also won 11 one-score games in 2024, and went as far as the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The following season, the Chiefs couldn't win a one-score game to save their lives or their campaign. Payton himself is aware of how dangerous building on a foundation of one-score victories can be, which is why the Broncos approached the 2026 offseason the way they did, prioritizing the retention of 90% of their snaps.

On one hand, the Broncos grew by leaps and bounds, winning all those tight games last season. The confidence those victories instilled in them was immeasurable. But they can't count on it as a means to win games consistently, especially against better opponents, which is why Patra's final point about the Broncos is so telling.

More Offensive Consistency

"Denver needs more consistency from the offense in 2026. How will handing over play-calling duties to Davis Webb work out? It could become a talking point if the offense gets off to a slow start. Once again, the AFC West looks like a gauntlet," Patra wrote.

Nix was a big reason for the Broncos' success last season, but from a consistency perspective, he left much to be desired until the stretch run. Nix has emerged as one of the NFL's great clutch-time quarterbacks, but he must do more moving forward to set the offense up in situations where these games aren't always coming down to which team gets the ball last.

That reality also informed a huge part of the Broncos' offseason approach, specifically the trade acquisition of Jaylen Waddle. The Broncos lacked explosiveness in the passing game last year, but Waddle's arrival should change that.

Waddle will demand attention in his own right, which will free up Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, and others, with better matchups and more one-on-one scenarios. Defenses won't be able to sell out to stop the run so easily, or shade coverage Sutton's way on the regular — not without opening themselves up to the Waddle threat.

The onus will be on Nix to take advantage of this new lay of the land, and with his considerable experience through his first two years, you've got to feel confident that he will. With Webb as his play-caller, Nix has to take some big steps forward in Year 3 from a consistency perspective.

That playmaking dynamic and clutch-time poise are fixtures with Nix. But can he win in the NFL by executing well through all four quarters? That'll be a key marker for how this 2026 season shakes out.

Lastly, the Broncos doubled down on their lackluster late-season run game by re-signing J.K. Dobbins to a two-year deal and drafting Jonah Coleman in the fourth round as a little insurance. Hopefully, the Broncos won't need Coleman as Dobbins insurance, and the rookie is able to contribute to this "three-headed monster" that romps throughout the season. But the fail-safe is there.

The Takeaway

I generally agree that the Broncos are vulnerable to losing the AFC West crown because they face a first-place schedule this season, plus the AFC East and the NFC West, two divisions that produced five playoff teams last year. The silver lining, though, is that the Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers also have to play the AFC East and the NFC West, which will level the divisional playing field.

The Broncos' 2026 schedule is a who's who of elite quarterbacks and top defenses, especially early on. It's not going to be an easy row to hoe, but the Broncos gained a lot of big-game experience and confidence last season, and that alone should serve them well.

If the Waddle addition and the Webb promotion to offensive coordinator play out as the Broncos hope, this team will be in a good position to repeat as AFC West champs. Again, it won't be easy, but nothing worth achieving ever is.

The Broncos earned this gauntlet of a schedule. They're qualified. Time will tell whether the Broncos are also bona fide.

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