Key matchups to determine final game between Buccaneers and Panthers

It all comes down to this.

Due to their own self-inflicted circumstances, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a must-win scenario in the final game of the 2025 regular season. Not only must the Bucs win this football game, but their fate is also in the hands of their most bitter rival, the New Orleans Saints, who must beat the Atlanta Falcons in order for Tampa Bay to even have a chance at finishing the year atop the NFC South, and ultimately punching their ticket to the postseason.

That being said, if the Bucs can't beat the Panthers on Saturday, their season will effectively be over.

Let's take a look at two key matchups that will have a significant impact on whether or not the Buccaneers can keep their hopes alive, at least for one more day.

Baker Mayfield vs. Bryce Young

Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young have both had their ups and downs this season.

Bryce Young is far from an aerial assassin. Over his past five games, the Panthers' franchise quarterback is averaging a paltry 157 passing yards per game. During that span, Young has thrown 3 interceptions to go along with 7 passing TDs, and his team has gone 2-3, with those wins coming against the Rams and Buccaneers.

Despite his pedestrian numbers overall, Young is still capable of putting up big numbers. In an OT victory over the Falcons in Week 11, Young was 31/45 while throwing for 448 yards and 3 TDs. He excels when it comes to layering the football with touch and accuracy, and he’s especially dangerous when he’s able to evade pressure and get out on the run while keeping his eyes downfield.

Much like Young, Baker Mayfield has, at times, looked like an elite quarterback this season. His passing yards (3,490), rushing yards (351), passing TDs (25), and QBR (60.8) are all superior to Young’s totals and top-15 numbers among all QBs in the league this season.

Unfortunately, though, Mayfield’s best individual performances feel like a distant memory. Despite his solid numbers overall, Baker has been indecisive, inaccurate, and turnover-prone over the past several months. The Bucs have won just one of their last eight games, and although there are many problems across all phases, it’s impossible to deny that the team’s struggles are in large part due to Mayfield’s unreliable play.

Both Mayfield and Young have been two of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the league this season due to their inconsistency. Whichever quarterback is able to avoid turning the ball over should have a distinct advantage in this matchup and will more than likely end up on the winning side when the final whistle blows.

Tetairoa McMillan vs. Buccaneers’ Secondary

Two weeks ago, we profiled the matchup between Tetairoa McMillan and Mike Evans. The Panthers’ young star has many similarities to the Buccaneers’ all-time leading scorer, and he’s likely to be named offensive rookie of the year at season’s end. McMillan won that matchup vs. Evans in Week 16 with 6 receptions for 73 yards and 1 TD, while Evans was held in check, totaling just 31 yards on 5 catches.

The Panthers lack depth of talent at the WR position, and McMillan should, and will, be targeted early and often in this game.

For the Buccaneers, the pressure will be on their depleted secondary. Starting outside corners Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean have both already been ruled out for this matchup, and rookie CB Benjamin Morrison’s status is still up in the air — as it has been for the majority of the season.

This creates a distinct advantage for McMillan, who, if Morrison can’t go, will be drawing coverage from the likes of Jacob Parrish or Kindle Vildor, two players who lack the size needed to match up with a towering receiver like McMillan. Not only that, but Vildor is a reserve corner who has spent much of the season on the sidelines, and Parrish has operated as the team’s primary nickel corner all year.

The Buccaneers will need to send a lot of safety coverage in McMillan’s direction, which means that Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith will have an important role to play in trying to slow down the Panthers’ most talented pass-catcher.

If Tetairoa McMillan is able to dominate the Buccaneers’ makeshift secondary on Saturday, then Tampa Bay is going to have an uphill battle to win this football game. If Todd Bowles is able to design a game plan to slow him down and his young DBs execute, then it will go a long way toward securing a victory for his team in a must-win scenario to close out the 2025 regular season.

Stick with BucsGameday for more coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throughout the 2025 season.

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