Chargers' Justin Herbert egregiously snubbed in prediction for NFL passing leaders

After what we've seen over his five seasons in the NFL, Justin Herbert is a lock to finish in the top 10 in passing yards, barring injury. However, he was recently snubbed in one analyst's projections.

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has routinely been among the passing yards leaders in every season he's been healthy during his NFL career.

Over his first three seasons, Herbert ranked sixth, second and second in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. He fell all the way to 18th in 2023, but that was because he missed four games.

But Herbert found himself back in the top 10 in 2024 after posting 3,870 yards, which ranked ninth. Making that more impressive, the showing was considered a down year for him and he had a lackluster receiving group to throw to.

While it would seem like a lock that Herbert will finish in the top 10 once again this season, barring injury, ESPN's Mike Clay does not see things the way we do.

In his annual stat projections, Herbert doesn't even crack the top 10 in passing yards, and this comes despite Clay projecting the Chargers signal-caller to throw the 10th-most passes in the league.

Here's how Clay sees things shaking out in his projections.

1. Joe Burrow: 4,111
2. Brock Purdy: 4,093
3. Tua Tagovailoa: 4,068
4. Matthew Stafford: 3,935
5. Patrick Mahomes: 3,903
6. C.J. Stroud: 3,885
7. Dak Prescott: 3,846
8. Geno Smith: 3,809
9. Jared Goff: 3,791
10. Trevor Lawrence: 3,774

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Leaving Buffalo Bills superstar quarterback Josh Allen off the list is certainly an interesting choice, also.

Make it make sense. This is obviously silly for several reasons, two of which are the aforementioned pass attempts projection and his overall history of finishing as a top-10 passer.

Adding to that, Herbert has a much better supporting cast at wide receiver this year. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are both more experienced, and the team added Tre Harris and Mike Williams.

Also, the additions of Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris could force teams to stack the box more, which will only open things up for Herbert even further.

There are three sure things in this life: death, taxes and Justin Herbert finishing as a top-10 passer in the NFL.

Clay is really going against the grain here with his projection, and we have a feeling it won't age well at all.

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