Chiefs Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Team Against Colts in Week 2

If you were skeptical of the Kansas City Chiefs coming into the season, Week 1 likely did some work to sway you in the other direction. Head coach Andy Reid's team isn't out of the woods just yet for this writer, although it was hard to not be super impressed by a 31-10 throttling of the Denver Broncos.

This weekend brings another prime-time bout to Kansas City, as the Indianapolis Colts arrive fresh off an ugly defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. It's been a tale of two experiences for Indy dating back to last season, as Shane Steichen's crew kicked off the 2025-26 campaign 7-1 but is just 1-9 since then.

Let's break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 2 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs' offense vs. Colts' defense

It's safe to say the Colts needed their offense to be excellent when things were going well in 2025, because the defense certainly didn't do anyone many favors. It sat 22nd in points and 23rd in yards per drive, also getting gashed for the second-most passing yards and fifth-most first downs. Trading for star cornerback Sauce Gardner in-season didn't help matters a ton.

Much of that was due to an inability to get off the field on third downs, where Indianapolis allowed opponents to convert at a 42.5% clip (26th). This is a group that, per SumerSports, was 17th in EPA per play (-0.02) overall but surrendered 0.27 EPA/play on late-down rushes (24th). Kansas City committing to feeding halfback Kenneth Walker III again may be beneficial.

Ironically, this might be a prime opportunity for the Chiefs to get their passing attack rolling after operating in survival mode in Week 1. Versus the Broncos, quarterback Patrick Mahomes got the ball out as quick as you'll ever see and routinely kept his average depth of target low. Via Sharp Football Analysis, the Colts gave up 10-plus yards on a play at a league-high 29.7% clip in Week 1 and had the 30th-ranked success rate (44.4%) when defending passes.

Personnel-wise, the interior duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart is nice on paper, but the edge rotation is lacking and the second level of the defense has yet to come together. Former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward isn't what he was during his prime, and questions about Gardner's rank among the game's best persist.

It is worth noting that coordinator Lou Anarumo is respected around the league and has given Mahomes some trouble in the past. Many remember him from his time with the Cincinnati Bengals during their early-decade contention window.

Chiefs' defense vs. Colts' offense

It remains to be seen which version of the Colts' offense is the real one, especially considering how stark the differences were last season. Just take a look at these rankings for Weeks 1-10 of the campaign, courtesy of RBSDM:

EPA/play: 0.183 (first)
Success rate: 51.0% (second)
Dropback EPA/play: 0.174 (ninth)
Rush EPA/play: 0.196 (first)

And now the same statistics the rest of the way:

EPA/play: -0.069 (25th)
Success rate: 40.0% (26th)
Dropback EPA/play: 0.001 (21st)
Rush EPA/play: -0.177 (28th)

Not all of that is simply quarterback Daniel Jones getting hurt and there being increasingly less to play for down the stretch of the year. (Much of the same logic should be attributed to how the Chiefs closed out last season, but that's a different conversation for another day.) Did the NFL catch on to what Steichen was planning for his offense, and if so, what's the new baseline?

Fielding a post-Achilles Jones and a wideout room without Michael Pittman Jr. (trade) makes it a tough evaluation. The veteran signal-caller looked pedestrian against Baltimore in Week 1, producing just 4.5 yards per pass and contributing to a lackluster 3-of-10 mark on third downs. The run game is where Indianapolis continued to find success and aims to keep doing so.

The Chiefs' sole focus should be stopping running back Jonathan Taylor. Via DOUG Analytics, the Colts attacked the Ravens primarily at the right tackle (37%) a game ago and implemented inside or outside zone on 63% of their rushing attempts. Kansas City's defensive ends will have to be on notice to slow down someone who can absolutely wreck a game and led the sport in carries (323), first downs (84) and touchdowns (18) in 2025.

How special are the special teams?

Reflections of this special teams unit are mixed. Brian Mason's side of the ball ranked 28th in average starting field position allowed last year at 31.9 yards, although a lot of that was earned back for the offense (30.8, 13th). It's a collective that received the No. 11 Pro Football Focus grade at 86.7 after being 23rd and 27th the two seasons prior.

Doing the kicking duties is Spencer Shrader, whom Kansas City fans should remember from 2024. He's turned into a solid performer for Indianapolis, making 13 of 14 field goals in five games last season and drilling a 58-yarder in his only Week 1 opportunity. Punting is lifelong Colt Rigoberto Sanchez, whose 46.6 net yards per kick from last week would be a career high if it held up for the whole campaign.

The primary return man to remember is rookie Seth McGowan. The seventh-round pick brought back five kickoffs against the Ravens, including a 66-yard effort. It'll be interesting to see how the Chiefs contain the Colts' group here and try to make some magic of their own happen with wideout Nikko Remigio and halfback Brashard Smith.

Chiefs Week 2 confidence meter: 7.3

The Colts getting carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey by Baltimore does hypothetically leave the door open for the Chiefs to do something similar. Still, with Mahomes easing his way back into action and Walker having so much success in Week 1 — even with left tackle Josh Simmons out — this outing could lean more toward the boring side for KC.

Week 1's game plan isn't sustainable for high-level winning football, but it very well could be enough here. Look for both teams to prioritize their running backs, which could lead to some big gains nonetheless. Given the prime-time nature of this Sunday Night Football bout, as well as the Chiefs' home-field advantage, it'd be a minor surprise to see them lose this one.

Weirder things have happened, yet it's difficult to bank on a Jones-led attack and a leaky defense pulling off a convincing upset. If Kansas City loses in Week 2, it'll be its own fault for playing a sloppy game.

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