Expert Predicts Outcome of Colts' QB Competition

The Indianapolis Colts have still not discovered a clear-cut solution to the team's long-lasting quarterback issue. The Colts took a swing on Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, but after two seasons, the count is 0-2, and Richardson's a strike away from going back in the dugout.

Indianapolis signed Daniel Jones to duel alongside Richardson for the right to be the team's Week 1 starter. After head coach Shane Steichen shared Richardson's injury news last week, Jones' odds of winning the job immediately skyrocketed.

The hope is for Richardson to be back in time for training camp in late July or early August. Once he's back, the competition will be in full swing as the Colts prep for a season-opening battle against the Miami Dolphins.

#Colts HC Shane Steichen said there's still no timetable on Anthony Richardson's return, but they'll ease him in once he returns.

Steichen said Richardson went out to LA for a second opinion with the surgeon who performed the procedure in 2023.
— Jake Arthur (@JakeArthurNFL) June 10, 2025

Pro Football Focus expert Thomas Valentine recently shared his thoughts on upcoming quarterback competitions and revealed his prediction for who will take home the starting job in Indianapolis.

"If the question is who has the most upside, the obvious answer is Richardson, but the warts on his game are big," wrote Valentine. "...His accuracy issues are evident, and over the past two seasons, 30.6% of his throws have been graded as inaccurate or off-target, the highest rate among all quarterbacks. On top of that, Richardson has played just 15 of a possible 34 games since he was drafted. As the cliché goes, the best ability is availability, and Richardson has struggled to stay on the field."

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"Jones is a serious threat to be the Week 1 starter in Indianapolis," continued Valentine. "The offense from top to bottom is talented, more talented than Jones has been used to for the past six years, and the Colts' front office may believe that Jones gives the team a better shot at making the playoffs in 2025.

"Richardson was always going to need time, and his 12.3-yard average depth of target in 2024, which was the highest at the quarterback position since Tim Tebow in 2011, paints a picture of a player who may need the game to be put on rookie mode for a while. But everything, including the most recent injury to Richardson, points toward the Colts being potentially too far down the garden path. Richardson will likely walk into the 2025 season as the team's starter, but Jones will be breathing down his neck the entire way. The margin for error is thin for general manager Chris Ballard and Steichen with this decision."

Is Indianapolis Colts QB Daniel Jones Being Overlooked? #Colts #NFL pic.twitter.com/6xO8hM343J
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) June 4, 2025

Last season, Richardson threw for under 2,000 yards and only eight touchdowns in 11 starts. He committed 15 turnovers, including 12 interceptions. Those mistakes must be minimized if Richardson wants to keep his starting role.

Valentine thinks Richardson will barely squeak out of training camp with the starting job. This would be the third-straight season the Colts are starting Richardson in their season opener. If all goes south, the Colts can turn to Jones as an immediate replacement who worked with the first team throughout the offseason.

The biggest concern with Richardson is actually putting in on-field reps. He's only completed 12 games in his career and has thrown the ball just 348 times over two seasons. The Colts need the 23-year-old to build a foundation before he's pulled from action due to injury or poor performance.

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