An NFL.com data model reveals Commanders' ceiling and floor

Expectations are like elbows - stop it - everyone has them. When it comes to the Washington Commanders, it seems just about everybody has an opinion or assertion as to how good or bad they’ll be in 2025.

Some, the most excitable and perhaps a little dreamy, have visions of a Super Bowl parade that will preview breaking ground on a new stadium in Washington, D.C. Others feel the Commanders were benefactors of a soft schedule in 2024 and will come crashing down to earth in 2025.

Science vs. Emotion

Regardless, most of those predictions are tied to emotion. Perhaps you’re a lifelong Washington football fan who needs to see the franchise return to glory, or you’re a bitter Chicago Bears fan with just the right combination of prestige and platform that your clear Caleb Williams bias manifested in Jayden Daniels hate gets to shine through the television screen.

Regardless, both sides have equal chances of being wrong, but NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund has a bit of science on her side when she tells you the ceiling for the Commanders in 2025 is 13 wins.

“You’ll notice that Washington's ceiling is slightly higher than the Eagles', so my model sees a world in which the NFC East has a new champion for the 21st consecutive season. One reason my model likes the Commanders? It loves the Laremy Tunsil addition,” Frelund says. “Last season, the five-time Pro Bowler recorded an 8.3 percent pressure rate, which was tied for the 12th-lowest among left tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps, per Next Gen Stats.”

Washington Commanders offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (78). | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Ceiling, the Floor, and the Projection

The Eagles are projected to have a ceiling of 13 wins, while Washington has a ceiling of 13.1. Of course, you can’t win .1 game, so we’ll see how the math matches reality at the end of the year.

The floor for Philadelphia is higher than the Commanders’, however. There, the Eagles are projected to win at least 10 (10.4 to be exact), while Washington could go as low as 8 (8.9) according to Frelund’s model.

Those work out to project 11.6 wins for the defending champs, and 10.4 for the Commanders, pointing to Philadelphia as the first back-to-back NFC East Division winners in decades.

A Welcome Change

As much as that would sting, having the second-highest win total projection is pretty nice, especially considering how much tougher this year’s schedule really is compared to last season’s.

While it would unfortunately provide just a Wild Card bid in the NFC Playoffs for a second-straight season, it’s much better than what Washington fans were used to before these past two seasons, when it took the entire division crumbling around Taylor Heinicke to even sniff the postseason.

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2025 season.

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