Commanders face a complex elimination scenario in Week 13

The Washington Commanders are on the brink. Here are the specific outcomes that would officially knock them out of the playoff race as early as next week.

Nov 16, 2025; Madrid, Spain; Helmets are seen prior to the 2025 NFL Madrid Game between the Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Washington Commanders have one game remaining in the month of November, and then it's on to December football, always considered the most critical stretch of any NFL season.

At least, it is when you’re in the hunt for a playoff spot, which the Commanders currently are, but are dangerously close to being permanently fixed on the outside looking in this season.

So close in fact, Washington can actually be eliminated in Week 13 if several factors fall into place.

Nov 16, 2025; Madrid, Spain; Washington Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) carries the ball against the Miami Dolphins in the fourth quarter during the 2025 NFL Madrid Game at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Determining Factor This Week

The determining factor of whether or not the Commanders could be eliminated next week actually comes this week, when the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers face off on Monday night football to close out Week 12.

If you want Washington alive entering December, then you want a Panthers victory, as it would leave the team in the NFC’s seventh spot mathematically within reach. 

On the other hand, if you are already focused on next year’s NFL Draft and want the best draft position possible, you want a 49ers win, which puts the Commanders in a position to be eliminated from the postseason if they lose and several other teams win their Week 13 matchups.

Of course, if Washington beats the Denver Broncos in a game, it is currently a near touchdown underdog, then no matter which team wins Monday night, the team would still be mathematically alive.

Nov 2, 2025; Landover, Maryland, USA; -Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) tackled by Washington Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu (4) and cornerback Marshon Lattimore (2) during the first quarter at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Nightmare Scenario

But if it loses in Week 13 following a 49ers win in Week 12, then four other teams winning would eliminate the Commanders.

Those teams are San Francisco (at Cleveland Browns) again, the Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions), the Seattle Seahawks (vs. Minnesota Vikings), and the Chicago Bears (at Philadelphia Eagles).

Currently, the Bears and Packers are both underdogs in their respective Week 13 contests.

Oct 5, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (1) runs against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Path to Survival

The best-case scenario for protecting playoff chances in Washington obviously starts with defeating the Broncos in primetime. 

Then, the teams listed above all need to lose, including the Packers on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions. Additionally, while the game has no role in eliminating the Commanders, an Arizona Cardinals win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would knock the losing team to 6-6 and keep them within striking distance entering December.

The Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Dallas Cowboys, also on Thanksgiving, helps Washington as well, as does a Seattle Seahawks win over the Minnesota Vikings during the weekend.

Finally, while it sounds counterintuitive, the chances of the Commanders catching the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East Division are even slimmer, so seeing them defeat the Chicago Bears in Week 13 is actually a positive, as it keeps the former within reach of being caught in the Wild Card race.

That’s a lot of moving pieces, of course, so the easiest way to look at it is to cheer for a Washington win and let us sort out the rest, which we’ll do every step of the way, no matter what the results.

READ MORE: Commanders' season has hit a new low in latest PFF rankings

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