Commanders' season is on life support, according to new playoff odds

The loss of a starting quarterback is always such an immediately traumatic experience. When Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with an injury to his non-throwing arm on Sunday night, there was a collective and near-simultaneous experiencing of the stages of grief from those in attendance and those watching at home.

For some teams, an injury to the starting quarterback can be a rallying cry. For this Commanders' season, however, it seems more likely to have been a death blow.

A Potential 'Death Blow'

That’s because after falling 38-14 to the Seattle Seahawks, Washington has not only lost its starting quarterback, but four straight games, and sits at 3-6 through nine games with eight left to play.

The upside is that eight games is a long time to get some good things going. The downside is that it's also often the case that things get worse.

After dropping yet another game, the only thing that can’t get much worse is the Commanders’ playoff odds, which now sit at four percent, fourth-worst in the NFC with one game between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals left to be played. Their positioning places them 13th in the NFC race thus far.

Nov 2, 2025; Landover, Maryland, USA; Members of the Washington Commanders Command Force hold the franchise's three Super Bowl trophies prior to a ceremony honoring retired Washington wide receiver Art Monk (not pictured) during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The NFC Playoff Picture

In reference to Washington's current position, the team has better odds than only the Cardinals, New York Giants, and New Orleans Saints.

On the AFC side of things, the Commanders would be in contention for the 11th spot with the equally 3-6 Cincinnati Bengals, who just lost to the Chicago Bears in their own defensive collapse.

If Arizona beats the Cowboys on Monday night, it will leapfrog Washington in the playoff standings and have a five percent chance of making the postseason itself. However, if it loses, the chances of that team earning a playoff spot drop to one percent.

Meanwhile, the odds Dallas makes the postseason drop to six percent if it loses to the Cardinals and 16 percent with a win.

The next opponent coming up for Washington, the Detroit Lions, are coming off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9 and now have a 72 percent chance of earning a playoff spot, currently sitting in the seventh spot in the NFC.

The Super Bowl Hype is Gone

Entering the season a popular choice to make it to the Super Bowl after finishing one game shy in 2024, the Commanders now have a less than one percent chance of winning or even appearing in the big game, serving as a strong reminder of just how far things have fallen for the team this season.

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2025 season.

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