Commanders' secondary faces a 'wild' new prediction for Sunday

There aren’t many expecting the Washington Commanders to upend the 5-2 Seattle Seahawks this Sunday night, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

As much as the Commanders can’t be enjoying the shift in public discussions around the team, once considered a Super Bowl contender before injuries and inconsistencies stole the shine the franchise had on it after 2024, the real problem isn’t the outside noise but the on-field talent.

In this matchup, that talent includes Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who figures to dictate a lot of the action against the Washington defense and demand plenty of attention.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) rushes for yards during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup, Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Seahawks defeated the Jaguars 20-12. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The NFL's Hottest Receiver

As the NFL’s leading receiver entering the weekend, Smith-Njigba not only has everyone’s respect, but he has their attention, including at least one analyst who believes the impressive season he’s had so far is about to take a giant leap forward.

A 'Career Day' Prediction

"Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded five games with 100-plus receiving yards this season, vaulting himself to the top of the receiving yards ranks with a total to date of 819. On Sunday, facing Washington's 26th-ranked pass defense, he'll hit the 200-yard threshold for the first time in his career -- and, just for good measure, notch his second career multiple-TD game, too,” NFL.com’s Maurice Jones-Drew predicted ahead of the weekend.

In some ways, however, the prediction is more than just bold; it’s insulting to the Commanders’ defense, especially the secondary.

Unfortunately, it isn’t without a base of logical thinking that it might actually come true.

Beyond the fact that Smith-Njigba is on the run, the Washington pass defense has been criminally bad for most of the year, giving up explosives in bunches after not giving up many at all last season.

Jan 18, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Washington Commanders defensive back Quan Martin (20) celebrates a touchdown after an interception during the second quarter against Detroit Lions in a 2025 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Case for the Defense

Those season numbers aren’t a reflection of everything the Commanders have done, of course. In a Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, not only did the defense pitch a shutout for over three quarters of play, but it held quarterback Justin Herbert under 200 yards passing. Hard to have a receiver bring in 200 when you can’t produce that much in total passing.

In the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs, it held Patrick Mahomes in check, keeping him from throwing a touchdown until the third quarter while intercepting him twice. No offense to Sam Darnold, but Herbert and Mahomes he is not.

Neither is Michael Penix Jr., yet he found a way to put up 313 yards through the air on this defense in Week 4.

The point here is that no historic performance guarantees future play, and while the national opinion may be that the Commanders' secondary is about to get decimated by one receiver, there are more than a single defender who will have a thing or two to say about how that prediction pans out on Sunday Night Football.

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