Analyst Picks Jayden Daniels Over Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for MVP

Drake Maye became the first quarterback from the 2024 NFL Draft class to lead his team to a Super Bowl appearance, but according to at least one analyst, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will be the first to win league MVP.

A historic projection for Daniels

In ESPN's recent early 2026 season predictions, Mike Tannenbaum says he believes, “Daniels will rebound from an injury-plagued 2025 season and reassert himself as the top quarterback of the 2024 draft class. He stays healthy, performs well throwing and running the ball and makes new offensive coordinator David Blough a prime head coaching candidate.” It’s a gift and a curse the Commanders would greatly welcome, though it’d be hard to imagine Blough would jump from assistant quarterbacks coach to head coach in just two years.

Still, if Washington witnesses its first MVP season since Mark Moseley kicked his way to the award in 1982, then it's safe to say head coach Dan Quinn delivered on his intention to never experience a season like 2025 again, at least for the one year he had the chance to.

And perhaps conversations about whether Maye or Daniels is the better quarterback can stop. Though I imagine one or the other winning such an award would only add fuel to the nonsensical debate.

For what it's worth, none of the other predictions have Maye listed as a candidate, likely stemming from his runner-up status this season, paired with a lackluster postseason run that ended with his looking every bit a young quarterback on the biggest stage of his football life.

Jan 11, 2026; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Wild Card Round game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The usual suspects and wild cards

Instead, the rest of the votes went to most of the usual suspects. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) were all named.

There was a mention of Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love as well, who seems to have taken the place of Justin Herbert as the candidate who hasn’t actually achieved anything MVP-worthy, with no more than nine regular-season wins in any year and a 1-3 postseason mark, yet gets thrust into the conversation as one of the best in the league.

Those trying to be a little different are predicting the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012, then with the Minnesota Vikings. Those names included Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) and, of course, Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers).

Then there are the wild cards, like Daniels some might argue, who also double as rivals to the Commanders’ quarterback.

Rivals in the NFC

Analyst Matt Bowen’s selection is Dak Prescott, of the Dallas Cowboys, citing that he “had more than 4,500 passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns this past season. With the Cowboys expected to retain wide receiver George Pickens, whom they will likely give the franchise tag, look for Prescott to produce high-level numbers again for a team that could challenge for the NFC East title in 2026 with an improved defense.”

Bowen hit the key points in his argument, Pickens’ return, and an improved defense, because as much as the MVP Award has become a quarterback award, it’s also a wins and losses award, meaning Dallas will need to win more than seven games to make Prescott a legitimate candidate.

Reporter Dan Graziano also named a Daniels rival, in the sense that Maye is a rival to some. “I see the arrow pointing up for [quarterback Caleb] Williams with Ben Johnson and a [Chicago] Bears team that arrived well ahead of schedule. Williams has that fourth-quarter clutch gene, and even if the Bears fix their defense to where he doesn't need as many clutch performances, he should have plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities in a tough NFC North.”

The only pushback I’d offer there is that a team has arrived, as Washington did in 2024, with just one season of positive results to lean on in the argument.

Some would say Daniels shouldn’t be on this list either, given what transpired in 2025. But if new coordinator David Blough can reinject some energy into the Commanders’ offense and Daniels can stay healthy, we already know the results can be grand. And that alone is reason enough, in February, to talk about what could be instead of worrying about what might come.

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2025 season.

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