What will Atlanta Falcons do with Fourth Overall Pick?

With many options available, what will the Atlanta Falcons do with their pick in the first round of the draft?

Author:
Alex Gilstrap
Publish date:
Apr 14, 2021 4:33 PM EDT

Many believe the 2021 NFL Draft actually begins with the Atlanta Falcons at the No. 4 overall selection. No matter the direction general manager Terry Fontenot sends the Falcons organization with the pick, it will ultimately decide the shape this year’s draft will take.

With Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson appearing to be near locks to be the first two players taken off the board and San Francisco looking to upgrade at the quarterback position with its move up from the 12th pick, Atlanta will be faced with many choices regarding the direction of the franchise. However, it isn’t known yet what direction that is.

ESPN insider Chris Mortensen recently spoke about the subject on a draft special show while delivering news concerning what he has heard about the Falcons’ thoughts ahead of this month's draft:

“What I’m hearing is that Fontenot is more focused on quarterback, and (head coach) Arthur Smith believes that Matt Ryan does have two or more years left. He has no real medical history, he hasn’t missed many games in his career, and there hasn’t been a big dropoff in his play.”

There appears to be some differing opinions from the new leadership in town. Despite the reported differences, however, the Falcons’ front office and coaching staff will inevitably continue to work through their roster and salary-cap concerns to optimize their opportunity in the draft.

Mortensen reported on the same show that the Falcons might have a favorite if they look for Ryan’s heir apparent at the position.

“One thing I do hear, though, is that if they do go quarterback at No. 4, then Trey Lance is probably the guy,” Mortensen said.

The former North Dakota State quarterback, Lance is often labeled as a “raw talent,” yet he has been lauded for his ability to pick up offenses, read defenses and is a very strong thrower when reading the field; something that most young quarterbacks struggle with when transitioning from the college game to the pros. Taking a couple of seasons to work up to NFL speed and learn the offense could prove to be hugely beneficial for himself and the Falcons organization if that is the direction they elect to head.

Despite reports of the Falcons looking at Lance and the future of the quarterback position in Atlanta, there are several options that Atlanta could realistically make to better them now and in the future. As the draft nears, rumors and speculation continue to rise with where the Falcons are headed, so let’s talk about some realistic scenarios for Fontenot and the organization.

Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

This could actually be any quarterback, although we decided to select Lance because of who is expected to be selected with the first three picks. Again, it appears Fontenot believes that selecting the future at quarterback is in their best interest. Additionally, we often see with first-year general managers and head coaches, they look to bring in their own guys early and flip the outlook of the roster. With the new front office and coaching staff in place, they have time to fix the roster the way they see fit before having expectations of seeing returns on those decisions.

No matter the quarterback prospect many would prefer here for Atlanta, this is a top-heavy quarterback draft class with a handful of prospects that are expected to hear their name called early on Day 1 of the draft. There is a lot of talent on Atlanta’s roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The likelihood that the Falcons are in striking distance to take a promising future quarterback without mortgaging the future to move up to get one is slim.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Smith’s offense in Tennessee last season led the NFL in two-tight end sets, and adding an uber-talented prospect at the position may be a perfect match moving forward. There is no question that Pitts is a blue-chip talent and could add yet another tantalizing pass-catching option for the Ryan-led offense moving forward while complementing Hayden Hurst as the other notable tight end in Smith’s offense that utilizes multiple tight ends more than anyone in the league.

The only concern with bringing in Pitts as the No. 4 pick is that they aren’t in dire need to take a tight end this high. There are many more concerns on the roster, making this a selection of the best player available while ignoring the areas of concern. The idea behind a selection of Pitts would be to make the offense as dynamic as possible for the last remaining years of Ryan in Atlanta in hopes of once again being a contender in the NFC South.

Penei Sewell, T, Oregon

With Smith bringing in his power-run scheme to Atlanta where success on the offensive side of the ball is predicated on the offensive line generating movement off the ball, Fontenot and this organization may look to beef up the trenches with the selection of Sewell, who many believe to be the best non-quarterback option in the draft.

Sewell would bring an athletic, yet powerful, pawn that can be played anywhere along the offensive line if asked to. With Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary currently looked at as the team’s starting tackles, there would be a sense of wasted capital spent on any of the three in this situation if they do take Sewell. Nevertheless, Sewell provides the Falcons with one of the draft’s most talented prospects and allows for Smith and this coaching staff to sort out deployment along the line.

Trade Down

There is no question the most significant holes on the Falcons’ roster are on the defensive side of the ball. Having one of the worst pass-rushing groups in the NFL and an inexperienced defensive back group are not favorable when attempting to stop NFL offenses. However, with the talent pool in this year’s draft the way it is, it may be more beneficial for the organization to move back with a team looking to move up to take a quarterback early. Whether it is No. 9 to Denver, No. 15 to New England or No. 19 to Washington, there are many teams behind Atlanta that may be aggressive in this rich class of quarterbacks that Atlanta can take advantage of to invest in their future while making value-driven decisions with their selections.

If this organization ultimately decides that Ryan has years left in the tank, this may be the best option. The defense is in dire need of help, yet the value on defense comes in the middle to late first round in the draft this year. Also, there are protections the organizations grant themselves with this move. By accumulating additional future early selections, they make it easier on themselves if a year or two down the road they wish to invest in the quarterback position if Ryan looks like he has exhausted what he has left by trading up with the additional capital.

Fontenot has made it clear he isn’t making decisions to benefit themselves in 2021 while simultaneously being detrimental to their long-term plans, and that outlook will likely remain true this month. With many options on how they take their first significant step under the new regime, the Falcons look to hold the key to unlocking the path the 2021 NFL Draft takes.

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