The Real Reason the Jaguars Might Struggle Again in Week 11

Week 11 could turn out to be a must-win game for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The odds aren't in their favor.

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) on the sidelines during the first half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars took a significant hit to their playoff odds in their Week 10 loss to the Houston Texans. That defeat could turn out to be a major inflection point for the ultimate postseason picture in the AFC. A win would have drastically increased their chances of at least earning a Wild Card bid.

Instead, the Jaguars blew a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter, allowing the Texans to go on a 26-0 run to take the lead and steal an upset while playing with backup quarterback Davis Mills. Jacksonville is still in possession of the AFC's seventh seed after the loss, but its margin for error was harshly reduced.

By falling to the Texans, the Jaguars also allowed their divisional rival to stay alive in their own playoff push. While Jacksonville took a deflating loss in Week 10, it saw several of its top competitors in the conference continue to gain momentum, including the Los Angeles Chargers.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) scores a two point conversion between Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day (69) and defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko (96) during the fourth quarter of an NFL first round playoff football matchup Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Los Angeles Chargers on a field goal 31-30. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jaguars must beat the Chargers

At 7-3, the Los Angeles Chargers are currently the AFC's fifth seed, just behind the 8-2 Denver Broncos for the top spot in the AFC West. They're two wins ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars and are slated to be one of their most direct competitors for the Wild Card spots in the conference.

More threatening to the Jags, though, is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have the same record at 5-4 and are just behind them in the standings. Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker over KC thanks to its Week 5 head-to-head victory over Patrick Mahomes and company, but the Jaguars will have to keep pace if they want to remain ahead of the Chiefs.

Sunday's game between the Chargers and the Jaguars is the most important game so far this season for playoff odds with 71% combined leverage.

Jaguars: 57% playoffs with win, 19% with loss
Chargers: 91% playoffs with win, 58% with loss

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) November 12, 2025

They could still theoretically pass the Chargers, though, especially if they can close the gap with a direct win over LA in Week 11. Los Angeles has been able to do some things that Jacksonville hasn't this season: handle injuries and overcome poor offensive line play. The Chargers have rightfully earned the benefit of the doubt over the Jaguars, and FanDuel has them favored by three points on the road as a result. Jacksonville is listed at +132 on the moneyline.

The Jaguars' pass rush has an advantage over the Chargers' ravaged O-line on paper, but that didn't prove meaningful in their latest loss to the Houston Texans. Meanwhile, LA has a staunch defense, especially against opposing air attacks. The over/under for this game is set at 43.5 points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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