Expert Provides Facts About Packers’ Compensatory Pick Potential

The Green Bay Packers went into the offseason hoping it would be rewarded with a pair of third-round compensatory draft picks for losing Malik Willis and Rasheed Walker to big-money contracts in free agency.

They’ll probably get one.

OverTheCap.com projects the Packers will receive a fourth-round pick for losing Willis to the Dolphins, a fourth-round pick for losing Romeo Doubs to the Patriots, a fifth-round pick for losing Quay Walker to the Raiders and a sixth-round pick for losing Kingsley Enagbare to the Jets.

However, so long as Willis stays healthy – perhaps a dangerous assumption considering the rebuild he’ll be tasked with leading in Miami – that fourth-round pick should become a third-rounder, said Over the Cap’s Nick Korte, who is the authority on the topic.

“Before the regular season, OTC's program for the compensatory-picks projection estimates snap counts based on the average of the prior four seasons,” Korte explained via e-mail. “Because Malik Willis has mostly been a backup in his NFL career thus far, Willis is currently receiving no snap-count boost.

“However, that will obviously change should he be the Dolphins' starter for 2026. Right now, I would guess that if he played at least three-quarters of the offensive snaps in 2026, the compensatory formula would value his contract in the third round.”

Compensatory picks are awarded based on a secret NFL formula. Korte mostly has cracked the code. The average annual salary is the biggest determining factor, followed by playing time. Willis’ new contract averages $22.5 million per season and he’s the no-doubt-about-it starting quarterback.

Don’t Break a Leg

Getting that third-round boost for Willis would be critical. Last year’s third-round compensatory picks for players (not minority coaches and executives) were Nos. 97, 98 and 99. The fourth-round compensatory picks started at No. 135. That’s a difference of 38 picks.

The difference in the level of player is significant, as you might expect.

Breaking it into tiers, there were 100 players selected between No. 97 (the first compensatory pick of the third round) and No. 106 over the last 10 years. Nine of those players have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, led by Maxx Crosby (four) and Trey Hendrickson (three). Twenty of those players have started at least 50 games and 58 played in at least one game last season.

Last year, the fourth-round compensatory picks started at No. 135. Breaking it into tiers again, there were 100 players selected between No. 135 and No. 144 over the last 10 drafts. Two of those players were selected to a Pro Bowl (including Dak Prescott). Thirteen players have started at least 50 games and 51 played in a game last year.

Here’s a significant difference: As rookies, 12 players in that first tier started at least 10 games, 21 started at least eight games and 37 started at least five. In that second tier, 10 rookies started at least 10 games, 12 started at least eight games and 21 started at least five.

Other Compensatory Picks

By OTC’s projections, Doubs ranks in the middle of the fourth-round compensatory picks, Walker is at the top of the fifth-round compensatory picks (but nowhere close to the salary needed to move into the fourth round) and Enagbare is in the middle of the sixth-round compensatory picks.

Gutekunst has had three fourth-round compensatory picks, which he used on receiver J’Mon Moore (bust), guard Royce Newman (16-game starter as a rookie, 24 starts in three seasons) and right tackle Zack Tom (premier player with a contract extension).

Green Bay Packers offensive tackle Zach Tom was an elite compensatory selection. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Gutekunst has had five fifth-round compensatory picks, which he used on punter JK Scott (three years with the Packers, eight in the NFL) receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13 touchdowns in four seasons with the Packers, 21 in eight seasons), cornerback Shemar Jean-Charles (two career starts; won Super Bowl ring with the Seahawks), Enagbare (played in all 68 games with 21 starts in four seasons with the Packers) and safety Kitan Oladapo (played in 17 games last season).

Gutekunst has had two sixth-round compensatory picks, which he used on receiver Equanimeous St. Brown (career-high 21 catches as rookie in 2018 and again with the Bears in 2022) and linebacker Isaiah McDuffie (80 games in five seasons and 29 starts the last two seasons).

What About Rasheed Walker?

Rasheed Walker was projected to get a huge contract because that’s what Dan Moore got last season in jumping from the Steelers to the Titans. Walker is considered a better left tackle than Moore.

It just didn’t happen, though. Whether it was an offseason gun charge, his lack of growth as a run blocker or a poor playoff game, he was forced to settle for a one-year contract with the Panthers that’s worth $4 million with the potential to earn significantly more.

So, rather than get a third- or even a fourth-round pick for Walker, he actually fell behind Enagbare among the compensatory free agents that the Packers lost. Teams can only be awarded four compensatory picks, so he won’t give the Packers any compensation at all.

A Lot of Draft Capital

The Packers don’t have a first-round pick in this year’s draft or next year’s draft. For the 2026 draft, they don’t have a lot of draft capital. For the 2027 draft, all the compensatory picks will help them offset the lack of a first-rounder.

These could be Green Bay’s picks:

First round: None.

Second round. One.

Third round. Two (including Willis compensatory pick).

Fourth round: Three (including Rashan Gary trade and Doubs compensatory pick).

Fifth round: Two (including Quay Walker compensatory pick).

Sixth round: One (Packers traded their pick for Darian Kinnard but would have the Enagbare compensatory pick).

Seventh round: One.

Give or take based on the exact placement of the picks, that would give the Packers six of the top 135 and eight of the top 175.

Compensatory picks can be traded, so Gutekunst not only will have 10 draft picks but he’ll have plenty of ammunition to move up and down the board in what’s supposed to be a superb draft class.

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