Carolina Panthers' playoff chances revealed following shocking Buccaneers loss

Where do the Panthers sit now and what are their postseason chances?

Nov 30, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales celebrates with Carolina Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders (0) after the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers needed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose on Thursday night. If that had happened, it would have opened up a ton of new possibilities for the Panthers to snag the NFC South title.

Midway through the fourth quarter, the Bucs were up 28-14, and it looked like the depleted Atlanta Falcons couldn't hang, but a furious rally and a walk-off field goal left Tampa with a stunning home defeat.

What does that mean for the Panthers?

What the Buccaneers loss means for the Panthers

Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) is upended on a tackle by Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It means the Panthers are now sole owners of first place in the NFC South. They haven't been in first or anywhere near it this late in the season since the Cam Newton era.

At 7-6, they're now a half-game up on the Bucs. Should they beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Panthers will have a full game lead on Tampa Bay. But does that matter to their playoff chances?

According to NFL.com, it does. Now the fourth seed (up from ninth), the Panthers have a 47% chance of making the playoffs. If they win this weekend, that jumps to 62%. A stunning loss, which the Panthers are more than capable of, drops them to 24%.

The Athletic's model is much more balanced. Prior to the loss, the Buccaneers had a 68% chance of winning the division. Now, it's down to 53%, so the Panthers have a 47% chance of usurping the crown.

It doesn't break down what happens with a win or loss, but you can expect those chances to rise above 50% if the Panthers can pull off a win in New Orleans, which is no easy feat for this Panthers squad.

And while those odds aren't overwhelming, a win this week, coupled with Tampa's late collapse, makes Week 16 a possible clincher. Regardless, that looming matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, a frightening one, won't matter.

Nov 9, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) rushes during the fourth quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

If the Panthers win on Sunday, all they'll need to do is win one of the two Buccaneers matchups. It doesn't matter which one. They will get into the playoffs if they beat New Orleans and Tampa Bay once.

If they lose both to Tampa, they have no shot at the playoffs, but winning just once and beating New Orleans is as simple as it gets.

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