NFL projection model predicts another disappointing finish for Carolina Panthers in 2025

The Panthers will only take a small step forward.

Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Yaya Diaby (90) sacks Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers seem to be trending upwards, at least with season results. When they started the Bryce Young era, they won two games. Last year, they won five. This year, it seems as if the sky is the limit, although it's really more like eight or nine wins.

Nevertheless, they seem to be headed in the right direction, so they should clear five wins. Unfortunately, The Athletic's projection model doesn't believe they'll get many more victories, and it's all thanks to that defense.

Carolina Panthers projected to finish poorly thanks to defense again

Aug 16, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back J.J. Taylor (26) rushes against Carolina Panthers safety Isaac Gifford (25) in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Athletic projects that the Carolina Panthers will win 6.5 games, which is just ahead of the New York Giants (5.9) and New Orleans Saints (5.2) in the NFC standings. It is admittedly very sad that the Panthers aren't that much higher than the Saints.

Austin Mock said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have it easy because he doesn't like the Atlanta Falcons as a legitimate contender due to their defense. Still, he admitted, "The Carolina Panthers have even further to go on defense, which dampens the exciting second half of the season produced by QB Bryce Young and the offense."

Young and the rest of the somewhat exciting offense are the sole reason for the upside this year. The Panthers had the worst defense in the NFL and one of the worst defenses in history last year. Sure, it'll be better, but how much better?

Despite adding three IDL (plus the return of Derrick Brown), two safeties, and two edge rushers who will likely all play a ton of snaps, the talent level on that side of the ball remains fairly low, especially compared to the rest of the league.

Young had to win shootouts plenty last year en route to those five wins, and he will probably have to do so again this year. He's better equipped and the defense should be stronger, but it won't be strong enough. The Panthers should, according to this projection, finish about 7-10, third in the NFC South and firmly outside the playoff picture.

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