Why Puka Nacua Won't Win Offensive Player of the Year

The 2025 NFL regular season is officially over. The playoff seeding has been determined, all award cases have been finalized, and the votes have been cast.

All that's left to do is to reveal the winners. Of course, teams can't be too concerned with whether any of their players will be taking home some regular-season hardware, as they're either starting a long offseason now or preparing for the postseason.

The Los Angeles Rams have three viable candidates for awards this year: Matthew Stafford for MVP, Sean McVay for Coach of the Year, and Puka Nacua for Offensive Player of the Year. However, it's becoming more likely that only one of them will win this season, and it's not Nacua.

Los Angeles Rams, NFL, Seattle Seahawks, Puka Nacua — Dec 18, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) makes a catch against Seattle Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe (29) in overtime at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The door might have shut on Puka Nacua

For the longest time, the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year race was neck-to-neck between the Los Angeles Rams' Puka Nacua and the Seattle Seahawks' Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

A few others made some decent cases, either earlier in the season or down the stretch, such as Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Bijan Robinson, but the two frontrunners were always the two star wideouts from the NFC West. However, JSN has taken a seemingly insurmountable lead, at least in terms of betting odds.

FanDuel has him as an overwhelming -7,000 favorite, while Nacua is second at +1,900. Considering the resumes between them, this feels like a disproportionate gap.

By the end of the season, Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished with nearly identical numbers. The former tallied 129 catches for 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Rams, while the latter totaled 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 scores for the Seahawks. So why is JSN so far ahead in the odds? It all comes down to circumstance.

What happened to Nacua's case?

Nacua had a chance to pull away with Smith-Njigba's production fading down the stretch. Instead, he put up two of his more mediocre games to end the season, notching 15 catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons, with LA getting brutally upset by the Falcons to lose their chances at the division and the NFC's No. 1 seed.

The most impactful argument will be their roles in their respective offenses. Nacua has Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams on his team, boasting the No. 1 scoring unit in the league.

Nacua is by far the best weapon on the most effective offense, but the Rams have an embarrassment of riches. JSN, on the other hand, is practically responsible for the entirety of the Seahawks' passing attack. The disparity between their situations, coupled with the similarity in their statistical profiles, will likely make Smith-Njigba the Offensive Player of the Year.

Awards odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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