The Rams Have a Problem on Offense — And It’s Matthew Stafford

Looking at the raw numbers of the Los Angeles Rams’ offense through the first four weeks of the NFL season, it would be easy to come to the conclusion that they are one of the best units in the NFL.

The Rams rank second in total offense with 417 yards per game behind only the Chicago Bears. They also rank second in passing offense with 290.3 yards per game, trailing just the Carolina Panthers.

Those numbers would seemingly tell you that quarterback Matthew Stafford is on his way to repeating as the NFL MVP. However, that has been far from the case. In fact, an argument can be made that Stafford has been one of the weakest links of the Rams’ offense.

The Rams rank just 19th in points per game with 21.3 and their -0.05 offensive EPA per play ranks 16th. On a play-by-play basis, the Rams’ offense is one of the best. They rank sixth in offensive success rate, but it’s a team with a quarterback that can’t get out of his own way to start the season.

To be clear, the Rams’ offense is its best version with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. This isn’t to say that the Rams need to bench Stafford or go to that level of extreme, even if they have a first-round pick on the bench. However, the Rams do need him to be better, especially if they are to reach their goals and be the team that many expected them to be coming into the year.

Stafford has shown the ability to make the high-level throws and bring the team back as he did last week. However, he's lacked consistency and made too many mistakes that have cost the offense in critical moments.

When Stafford turned the ball over on the opening drive on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, it marked the first time in his career that he has thrown an interception in the first four games to start a season. In the first four games, Stafford has six touchdowns and six interceptions.

Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in every game this season. According to ESPN Research, this is his longest streak to open a season in his career.
— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop) October 4, 2026

Matthew Stafford’s Slow Start Is Holding the Rams Back

Heading into Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills, Stafford ranks 17th in ESPN’s QBR. His 80.5 quarterback rating ranks 21st and trails Cam Ward, Aaron Rodgers, Tyson Bagent, Jacoby Brissett, and CJ Stroud. It’s only 0.1 better than Bo Nix.

In the more advanced stats, Stafford’s -0.01 EPA per pass ranks 19th and trails quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson. It simply hasn’t been good enough from Stafford.

Yes, it’s true that not many quarterbacks could have brought the Rams back from 10 points down in the fourth quarter on the road in Philadelphia in the rain. At the same time, there are a lot of other quarterbacks who would not have had the Rams in that position to begin with. The interception at the end of the first half simply cannot happen.

Coming into Sunday’s game, the Eagles hadn’t forced a single turnover on defense. Stafford gave them two and was directly responsible for 10 of Philadelphia’s 20 first-half points.

The Rams’ defense has three interceptions this season. On two of those occasions, Stafford has given the ball right back with an interception. According to Pro Football Focus, he has eight turnover-worthy plays in 2026, which is tied for the fourth most in the NFL.

The Matthew Stafford interception regression is real. Stafford through 8 INTs last year, and is already at 5 picks in 3+ games in 2026. He led the NFL with a +6.8 "net luck" rating during the 2025 season. Was due for more INTs. pic.twitter.com/oQRwZMbWah
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) October 4, 2026

In a sense, a regression back to the mean was always going to happen for Stafford after his MVP season. However, his turnover-worthy-play rate of 4.3 percent is the worst since his rookie season with the Detroit Lions back in 2009. Fantasy Points Data actually has his turnover-worthy throw rate even higher at 6.7 percent, behind only Trevor Lawrence.

Stafford has always been a quarterback that is going to take risks and trust his arm a little too much sometimes. That’s been the case on a few of his turnovers this season.

Stafford’s Deep Ball Has Taken a Significant Step Back

It’s not just the turnovers that have been an issue for Stafford. He has also lacked accuracy on deep targets. Last season, Stafford had a success rate of 46.7 percent with an EPA per pass of 0.74 on deep targets. His success rate ranked fifth and EPA per pass ranked sixth.

This season, Stafford’s EPA per pass of -0.17 ranks 26th and his 28.6 percent success rate ranks 24th. His success rate has dropped 18 percentage points. That’s a significant drop-off. Against the Denver Broncos, he missed Davante Adams a few times on the deep ball. He also slightly overthrew Adams after he had won at the line of scrimmage with a double move.

Again, it hasn’t all been bad for Stafford. There are moments where his arm talent has still been evident. His seven ‘big-time throws’ via PFF rank seventh. On tight-window throws, Stafford’s 0.55 EPA per dropback ranks third behind Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.

There Is Reason to Believe Stafford Will Turn It Around

Stafford typically improves as the season progresses. Since 2023, Matthew Stafford has averaged 0.08 EPA per dropback in Weeks 1-4. From Weeks 5-18, he’s averaged 0.14 EPA per dropback. That’s roughly a 77 percent jump in efficiency per play after the first month of the season.

If we widen that gap to Weeks 1-6 instead, he averaged 0.06 EPA per dropback compared to 0.16 in Weeks 7-18. Stafford is approximately 2.5 times more efficient per dropback after the first month and a half of the season. This has especially been the case over the last two seasons.

The Rams are officially out of the first month of the season and following Monday night’s game against the Buffalo Bills, the schedule does lighten up slightly. With Puka Nacua already back and Terrance Ferguson eventually returning, the Rams will once again be fully healthy at their skill positions. We have yet to see what the offense truly looks like with both those players on the field.

For the Rams to reach their ceiling, they don’t need Stafford to replicate his MVP-level play from last season. However, he does need to stop being one of the main reasons for the offense’s struggles and inconsistencies. The turnovers need to get fixed. Stafford’s history suggests that better football is coming and he’s still the best option at quarterback for the Rams.

At the end of the day, the Rams will only go as far as Stafford takes them. If the Rams are going to go from an offense that piles up yards to one that consistently puts points on the board, that improvement needs to start with Stafford.

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