The 4 Keys To Determine The Outcome Of Ravens vs Colts Week 1

The Ravens are a road favorite going into Indianapolis Sunday, but this is no easy ask.

The Colts’ offense was among the most balanced and efficient in the NFL last year until quarterback Daniel Jones started to break down in late November. When they faced Ravens head coach Jesse Minter in October, running the Chargers elite defense, they were at the peak of their powers and tore through his unit in ways frankly no other opponent did in two years on the job there.

There are also some critical health/rust variables at play here with many key players coming off extreme layoffs due to not doing much this summer or because they are coming off a significant injury or they are about to play their first game in the NFL or their first game for their new team. There is a lot of inherent variance.

At this point I suspect a higher-scoring game and, even with Minter’s prowess and the expectations for this defense. It would not surprise me if the Ravens have to score close to 30 points to win this, maybe more. There are a handful of critical areas that could swing this one way or the other. These are the keys to the game:

Which LB Unit Steps Up?

They were going to be heavily tested even if these groups were entering this game under better circumstances. Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has been shredded by Lamar Jackson’s legs in 10 previous meetings – and whose defense in Indy could not contain running QBs last year, - is talking about rotating guys and looking at a lot of bodies at this position. That could be an issue. Rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is going to want to probe at this early and often.

We think Lamar has some explosive rushes. And Derrick Henry will never be fresher at age 32 than he is now, and the Colts have a great trio of corners – and the Ravens are short on proven playmakers in the pass game – but those dudes can’t handle King Henry.

The Ravens are hoping for a big bounce-back year from $20M LB Roquan Smith, but the Ravens making no real attempts to extend him and lower his numbers is telling. Pushing 30 years and 3000 snaps and becoming a liability in many ways last year, this Colts quick-and-short passing game is designed to give him fits. And RB Jonathan Taylor is a problem for everyone and if Minter plays his normal extra-DB looks, it could really expose Smith.

Not having game-wrecking DT Nnamdi Madubuike in front of him brought out the worst in Smith last year and it will be Week 2 at the earliest for Madubuike’s return from neck surgery. (Calais Campbell, 40, is already a vital player for Baltimore). Not having starting LB Teddy Buchanan back from ACL surgery means a heavy dose of Trenton Simpson. Ravens say he has turned the corner, but it’s been rough to this point.

Ravens Under-Center Operation

Doyle is installing a Sean Payton system which means a ton of this and less shotgun. (Payton breaks down what he thinks Doyle is borrowing most from him here). The under-center play action has been needed for years. But Doyle is doing it with a center making his starting debut with 11 snaps in his career and a rookie guard next to him. Oh, and this offensive line has never played a snap as a five -man unit ever in any game situation. Ever.

Can they avoid pre-snap issues and flinching and miscommunication? And will Colts veteran DT DeForest Buckner make them pay? He is another one of those players coming off major procedure, having next surgery on New Year’s Eve. If he is close to his best, this could be one of the bigger mismatches in this game and one that Doyle could be hard pressed to neutralize without bastardizing the game plan.

Halftime Adjustments

Week 1 is the ultimate crapshoot. The teams themselves aren’t sure what’s real and what’s fool’s gold. That’s in terms of many players and in terms of precisely where this new edition of their ballclub can excel against a real opponent in a real game. Add in a novice OC and a rookie HC for Baltimore who has never worn this many hats before, and the midpoint of this game will be critical.

When Anarumo was at his peak going to the Super Bowl with the Bengals, he was a savant at switching things up. Doyle has talked quite a bit about wanting to script out as much of the game as possible. Well, maybe he tries to do that again at the half, but time is short and maximizing that break is a learned trait. With him not on the sideline’s he’s going to have to connect with players then, also.

Who Closes It Out?

The Ravens scuttled a trade for Maxx Crosby (who is not on the Week 1 injury report to the surprise of no one) to pay Trey Hendrickson $30M a year. Better be worth all of it. General manger Eric DeCosta’s plan to find young-and-cheap pass rushers blew up on his fancy shades repeatedly in recent years (and always in the playoffs), and it completely derailed Baltimore’s 2025 season. Hence the major course correction.

This has been a suspect fourth-quarter defense under three coordinators dating back to nearly the entirety of Lamar Jackson’s tenure at QB. Hendrickson is the highest paid EDGE defender in this game and it isn’t close. We suspect this is a tight game late, and Jones is in his first game off a repaired Achilles. It's go time.

A sack, a forced fumble, a late INT will probably settle this thing. Far too often over the last half dozen years that person hasn’t been wearing a Ravens jersey. It also could come down to a kick to close, and that might be a big ask for Ravens second-year kicker Tyler Loop, who is fighting to keep his job.

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