6 Factors That Will Decide if Seahawks or Patriots Win Super Bowl

The Seattle Seahawks might be the favorite to leave Levi’s Stadium with a Super Bowl LX victory, but there are a lot of things that have to go in both teams’ favor to finish the day hoisting a Lombardi Trophy.

These teams are similar in many ways — each playing sound defense and relying on a consistent run game to keep control. They both have quarterbacks who can also be difference makers if given the chance.

With kickoff approaching on Sunday, Feb. 8, here are six factors that could swing the game in the Seahawks' or Patriots’ favor.

Quarterback turnovers

Sam Darnold had an NFL-high 20 turnovers in the regular season, but he didn’t turn it over a single time in the Seahawks’ two playoff games.

Drake Maye had just 11 turnovers in the season’s first 18 weeks before committing five in three postseason games. He had three other fumbles that the Patriots were able to recover.

So, the quarterbacks in this game are trending in opposite directions. But both will need to protect the football against quality defenses, and that’s exactly why this could be the biggest factor that impacts the outcome of the game.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) during the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

More successful run game will control the tempo

The Seahawks have won the time of possession battle in each of their last four games, which includes the postseason bouts. That’s been a credit to the run game that has found its stride since the midway point of the season.

New England has done the same thing in six straight games, going back to Week 16. But the Patriots’ rushing attack has slowed its efficiency in recent weeks, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the last two games.

The Houston Texans and Denver Broncos keyed on stopping the run against the Patriots, and the Seahawks do that better than anybody. Still, the Patriots only allowed a respectable 4.2 yards per carry in the regular season, so they could make it hard for the Seahawks’ run game as well.

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III and Patriots rushers Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will have their work cut out for them.

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) moves with the ball in the first quarter in an AFC Divisional Round game against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Nick Emmanwori’s health

Emmanwori, who has emerged as one of the Seahawks’ top defenders in its league-best defense, is expecting to play on Sunday despite suffering a low ankle sprain on Wednesday. Generally, a high ankle sprain will be more devastating to a player’s chances of playing and their mobility.

It’s still a factor, even though he has two more days to recover. The Seahawks will want him as close to 100% as possible to limit the Patriots' offense, especially since Emmanwori has been a monster in the postseason.

Seattle’s elite special teams unit

This game isn’t just about the offenses and defenses. The Seahawks have the best special teams unit in the NFL, highlighted by returner Rashid Shaheed and helmed by coordinator Jay Harbaugh.

Seattle allowed the fourth-least yards per kickoff return this season (24.0) and posted the third-highest average yards per return (28.0) on the other end.

Shaheed has one punt return touchdown and two kick return scores this season, with one coming in the Divisional Round. He’s been the Seahawks’ top secret weapon, with big plays coming at the most opportune times. Even if things are going well for the Patriots, Shaheed can flip it in an instant.

The Seahawks’ point differential this season after a Shaheed special teams touchdown is 74-16.

Jan 25, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) runs in the first half against the Los Angeles Rams in the 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Patriots’ key injuries

Patriots linebacker Robert Spillane was a non-participant in practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury he suffered against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship. Harold Landry III, another key New England linebacker, was a limited participant with a knee injury.

Maye is dealing with a right shoulder injury, but his status doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy. The only difference that could make is whether he is limited at all in his throwing shoulder. Injuries may have no impact on this game at all, but defensive absences could hinder the Patriots.

Maye’s legs

Much of the Patriots’ rushing output comes from Maye’s scramble game. Maye rushed for more than 65 yards in two of his team’s three playoff games and had five total rushing scores across the regular and postseason.

When Maye gets going, he is a huge rushing threat. The Seahawks will have to contain him if they hope to avoid him extending plays and drives for the Patriots on the ground.

Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) rushes the ball against Denver Broncos safety Devon Key (26) during the first half in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images