How the Atlanta Falcons can help the Seattle Seahawks and hurt the LA Rams

On June 8th, 1982, the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers 114 to 104 in The Forum, clinching their eighth NBA championship, on the backs of future hall of famers Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Jamaal Wilkes, Michael Cooper, and (mostly washed up, admittedly) Bob McAdoo. It was a great team in the present and would be great in the future.

Three weeks later, the Lakers drafted collegiate superstar James Worthy with the #1 overall pick, who would go on to make seven all-star games, win Finals MVP in 1988, and make the Basketball Hall of Fame. Now, you might be wondering, how in the world did the championship-winning Los Angeles Lakers get the first overall pick in the draft? Ask Ron Hrovat, the one-and-done GM of the Cleveland Cavaliers two years prior.

In 1980, the Lakers had traded Don Ford and a first rounder to the Cavaliers for Butch Lee and a first rounder. Ford would play just over one hundred lackluster games in Cleveland before retiring. The Lakers pick turned into Chad Kinch, who played one NBA season and retired. Lee scored 14 points total in eleven games as a Laker before hanging his sneakers up. Sounds fair, right?

It was, until that Cleveland first rounder turned into the #1 overall pick in 1982 and allowed an already talent-rich Lakers team to replenish their roster with a blue chipper. A budding dynasty blossomed, bigger and better than previously expected, the squad making the NBA Finals in six out of his twelve seasons. What does this have to do with the Seahawks, Falcons, and Rams?

Earlier this year, the Falcons decided to treat Ron as a role model. Heavily coveting edge rusher James Pearce Jr in the late first round of the draft, the Falcons made a big trade, picking up the #26 overall selection from the Los Angeles Rams along with a late third rounder. They got their man at #26, but the problem is they sent back their second round and seventh round picks.

Oh, and don’t forget that 2026 first rounder they threw in as well. I certainly haven’t. Even though the Rams used the aforementioned second rounder on tight end Terrance Ferguson, who can generously be described as ‘forgettable’ so far, that first rounder looms large as an asset that a team that is already as good as LA does not need to be getting gifted.

It was an obviously bad move at the time. James Pearce was an intriguing prospect, but ranked 32nd on the aggregate big board on the day of the draft, a long way away from being some massive steal opportunity Atlanta needed to move heaven and earth to jump on. The Falcons had, just an hour or so before, spent a first on another edge, Jalon Walker, who has been good.

Baker Mayfield (6) passes the ball against Atlanta Falcons linebacker James Pearce Jr. (27) during the first quarter. — Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes the ball against Atlanta Falcons linebacker James Pearce Jr. (27) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

But the pudding that provides the proof has been the 2025 season the Falcons have had to this point. No team would ever give up their first round pick for a season they expect to be a bad one. Putting your chips in the middle of the table implies some expectation of winning the hand. Yet, here we are, looking at a 5-9 Falcons team that is, as of this moment, handing LA the #10 overall selection in the 2026 draft.

As a Seahawks fan, this turn of events is deeply annoying, as it wasn’t hard to project a lackluster season in Atlanta. Michael Penix in his first full year as a starter, a head coach who hadn’t had a good season since 2010 in Tampa Bay, and a division with a lot of variance outside of New Orleans. Rolling the dice is one thing, but overextending like this was something else.

Silver linings exist, however. Atlanta was 3-7 at one point before pulling together a 2-2 stretch to at least get out of the top five in the draft order. The 2026 draft, which looked juicy during the offseason, has crashed to the point of being relatively unappetizing, especially at the quarterback position where the Rams were likely hoping to get a Stafford heir with that pick.

But there will still be good players available, and a higher pick increases the odds of one of those good players ending up in Los Angeles. To say nothing of the small but distinct possibility that a high-enough pick could make for a trade chip that the Rams could spend along with several others to bring in gulp Joe Burrow to take the mantle from Stafford. So, how do we limit the damage?

Simply put, the Atlanta Falcons need to win some games down the stretch here. Today actually feels pivotal, as they’re taking on an Arizona Cardinals team with a laundry list of injuries and a six game losing streak, but the game is in Arizona, and if the Falcons can lose to the New York Jets (and they did), you can’t assume anything. If Atlanta does win today, it should more or less secure their pick below the top nine.

I won’t even bother hoping they can beat the Rams in Week 17 (although that would be another very effective way they could help the Seahawks and hurt the Rams!), but they wrap their season up hosting the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons won in New Orleans a few weeks ago, and while the Saints are on a bit of a hot streak since, Atlanta should be good favorites at home.

Two wins secures 7-10, far from a successful season, but would guarantee a pick outside the top eight. And might even, from Atlanta’s perspective, make the trade not that bad, since James Pearce has been good for them so far (just ignore his run defense grades). But to really limit the damage, we’re going to need more.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter. — Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Seattle doesn’t just need Atlanta to win, but other teams to lose. Which teams? Let’s start with the 4-10 Cincinnati Bengals, who have a high strength of schedule and would drop below Atlanta if both teams finish 7-10. The Bengals go to the Quinn Ewers Dolphins before wrapping up by hosting the Cardinals and Browns, so this is a genuine possibility.

Speaking of the Miami Dolphins, they’re sitting a game ahead of the Falcons at 6-8, but with an SOS .017 weaker as of this moment, meaning they likely hop ahead if they end up with the same record. With the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Patriots remaining, 7-10 feels almost like an optimistic prediction, and 6-11 would surprise no one. I like our odds here.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) might be the most deflated team in sports, but they still have road games against the Titans and Raiders to farm wins off. If you pencil in Denver as a loss, but keep in mind their SOS of .519, this is going to be tricky. Unless the Falcons really do want to pull a Captain Ahab against the Rams next week, we’re going to need the Chiefs to lose out to leapfrog the Atlanta pick.

The Minnesota Vikings SOS is even higher at .524, so they would need to lose out as well. That hope will likely be dashed today in New York against the hapless Giants, but a Vikings loss would probably clear a path, given upcoming games against the Lions and Packers to end the year.

The Dallas Cowboys have an incredibly low SOS of .449, but that’s essentially irrelevant given their tie earlier this season. 7-9-1 is better than 7-10, no caveats needed. The good news is, Dallas has regressed to the point where losing out against the Chargers, Commanders, and Giants is somewhat believable, but still seems like long odds unless Dallas shuts some players down.

The Baltimore Ravens are the final team to monitor for now. They will need to thread the needle to help us out here, first losing out against New England, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh to go 7-10 (highly believable), and then having their SOS drop below Atlanta’s. The difference is just .002, but a few extra levers need to get moved here to make it happen.

Feb 25, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Atlanta Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot speaks during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Measuring this all out, it looks like the Falcons will ship Atlanta the 11th overall pick to Los Angeles, if all the expected boxes get checked. Based on the way the aggregate big board stacks up as of this writing, that probably puts them in play for Ty Simpson (9th) or Francis Mauigoa (13th). Worst case, it ends up around 7th and Carnell Tate (7th) is on the menu.

But, if the breaks go the other way, 14th or 15th is a possibility, even if you’re assuming the Falcons have no chance against LA next week. We’ll know much more after today’s slate, but should that be the outcome, you’re more in Mansoor Delane (15th), Jermod McCoy (16th), or Makai Lemon (17th) territory.

There’s a ton of time for these boards to scramble, but however it breaks, it becomes less ‘Hindenburg’ and more ‘driving away from the gas pump with the pump still in the fuel door’ at that point. Bad, embarrassing, something that shouldn’t happen, and damaging, but not a capital offense.

Of course, the first part of this analogy (said team winning the championship in the same year as said draft) is still on the table, and that is definitely the more nausea-inducing of the two events, but that’s a discussion for a different time.

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