Projecting What a Ken Walker III Contract Will Look Like

For Kenneth Walker III, the next five weeks may be the most important weeks of his life.

He just completed the best season of his NFL career, his first where he didn’t miss a game to injury, and wrapped it up with a crushing postseason run. He’s the Super Bowl MVP. He’s twenty-five years old, he’s surpassed a thousand career NFL touches, and he plays a position that has a very short shelf life. His next contract will probably be his last significant one.

It’s time to cash in. His rookie contract paid out less than eight and a half million dollars over four seasons. He’s got to get his. I’m sure endorsement money is coming his way after his stellar 2025 season, but this is his one real chance to secure his future. With that understanding in mind, what can we expect Walker to get on his new deal?

Considerations On The Contract

First, let’s understand that Ken is probably going to get ‘overpaid’, in the sense that he’s going to get more than his production and play would indicate is appropriate. He’s coming off three great postseason performances, is the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP in nearly thirty years, and there’s extra incentive for the Seahawks to keep him due to the Charbonnet injury.

The only mitigating factor here is that the free agency class of running backs is especially strong, with a lot of starting-caliber players available. This could create a buyer’s market, and drive down the prices across the board. But I suspect this will not have much of an effect on Walker, who may be the best of the available backs.

Also, the Seahawks have plenty of money, and that fact is public knowledge. So, even though Ken Walker has never made a Pro Bowl, All-Pro team, had a double-digit touchdown season, or gotten votes for Offensive Player of the Year, he’s getting paid like someone who has. And that’s something I can live with, as the primary thing holding him back is the workload he can handle.

A massive Super Bowl performance will get Walker paid. — Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs the ball as New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90). | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Projecting A Fair Number

Spotrac currently has a Walker contract at four years and just over $36 million. At this point, that seems like a fantasy, although I imagine that would have been a fair estimate if not for Ken’s monster postseason performance. I do think that four years is the right number, but I don’t think nine million a year is going to cut it.

Rhamondre Stevenson signed a roughly-identical deal in 2024, coming off a season where he missed five games and didn’t even top 900 yards on a terrible team with a terrible offense. Stevenson did have an excellent 2022, with nearly 1,500 yards, 70 catches, and 5.2 yards per touch, but also had a fumble problem that Walker doesn’t have. Gotta go higher.

Kyren Williams got his three years and $33 million last offseason from the Rams after consecutive monster seasons, totalling over 2,800 yards and 31 touchdowns. He also proved he could be a bellcow, getting 350 touches in 2024. Throw in a Pro Bowl and All-Pro Second Team appearance in 2023 and OPOTY votes in 2024, I’d normally draw the line here.

But I’m not convinced that’s going to fly here. Kyren didn’t have anything close to the postseason run that K9 just had in either of his breakout seasons, and also had a bit of a fumbling issue. Also, Williams (and this goes for Stevenson as well) was extended with a year left on his rookie deal, and probably compromised in negotiations because of it.

James Cook might be the correct comparison at this point. Extended by Buffalo last year to a four year, $46 million contract, Cook picked up back-to-back Pro Bowls before getting paid. Nearly 1,600 scrimmage yards in 2023, and 18 touchdowns in 2024, with extremely high efficiency. He also had a big postseason run in 2024. I think we’re about there.

Look to James Cook's extension as a template. — Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) looks to the end zone during the second quarter. | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two years ago, Josh Jacobs got four years and $48 million after a disappointing 2023 with the Las Vegas Raiders where he missed four games and averaged just over four yards a touch. However, fueling that contract was what he did in 2022, which included over 2,000 yards, nearly 400 touches, and an All-Pro first team selection. Can’t see Walker at that level.

The Contract

Understanding that the salary cap goes up every year, but that running back contracts don’t climb very rapidly unless you’re the absolute cream of the crop, let’s find a projection. Give me the four years and $46 million, identical to the James Cook extension. Obviously, he hasn’t been as good as Cook, but the circumstances dictate the same deal in my estimation.

I’ll admit it’s not my favorite, given that Walker has already proven that he can’t hold up under a full workload, but it’s not even close to a crippling deal. There will probably be a reasonable out after two years and a painless one after three. Ken should have a few strong years left, as he hasn’t been overloaded with touches so far in his career.

A smart team should be able to get that much value out of him. Pace him, use a secondary running back, and make sure he has something left for the end of the season. It’s a fair deal, and one that I think will keep this team dangerous on offense while allowing Walker to cash in on his success.

Dive into that pile of money, K9. You've earned it. — Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) reaches for a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams linebacker Byron Young (0). | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Considerations On The Contract

Projecting A Fair Number

The Contract

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