What the Falcons’ upset win over the Rams on Monday Night Football means for the Seahawks

The last 75 minutes worth of football for the Los Angeles Rams has been a shocking turnaround. At the point where it started, they had a sixteen point lead on the road against the Seahawks midway through the fourth quarter, and virtually everyone on the planet was circling them as the clear best team in the NFC. Since, the wheels have fallen off.

The lead vanished in a matter of minutes, the game was lost in overtime on a two-point conversion, they watched as the outcomes of other games over the last week eliminated them from winning the NFC West, and now they’ve dropped a shocking game to the eliminated Atlanta Falcons. And what a team to drop a shocking game to as well.

In terms of playoff impact, the effect of this loss is fairly simple. If the Seahawks lose to the San Francisco 49ers this weekend, Seattle will now be guaranteed the #5 seed and a trip to the winner of the NFC South between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Previously, a Seattle loss this weekend would have likely sent the team to Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend.

If Seattle wins on Saturday, the effect is fairly minimal, as Los Angeles still gets the #5 seed so long as they win against the Cardinals. Perhaps I shouldn’t assume that outcome at this point, but it’s hard to imagine anything else happening, with the Cardinals having lost eight straight games. But that is not the only effect of this surprising Rams’ loss to consider.

I discussed the draft implications of the Atlanta Falcons’ season in a previous article, lamenting their decision to ship their 2026 first rounder to the Rams for the chance to draft James Pearce Jr back in April. However, there was a roadmap for the value of that pick to at least be somewhat muted in the final weeks via good results in other games and Atlanta putting wins up.

When I wrote that article, I more or less assumed that the Falcons would be losing to the Rams in last night’s game. Can you really blame me? It’s not like the Rams took the game off or anything. Stafford, Puka, Verse, Kyren, Landman, the whole crew was out there. Yes, there were a handful of injuries, but clearly Los Angeles wanted the win.

But now, with that outcome last night, a whole new world of possibilities has opened up. With more good outcomes this weekend, that Rams first round pick has a chance of being pushed right into the middle of the round, and given this year’s questionable draft class quality, it might end up not even being that bad of an exchange for the Falcons.

We need you one more time this weekend, Kirk. — Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) celebrates after a victory. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

As of this moment, Atlanta is sending the 12th overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft to the Rams. The further down that pick can get pushed, the better, particularly in a draft that seems somewhat light on blue chippers. So, with just one week left to go, let’s take a look at the circumstances of that pick and what Seahawks fans should be hoping for this weekend.

First, obviously, the Falcons need to win their last game, at home against the Saints. This seems perfectly reasonable to expect. It is worth noting that a Falcons victory here guarantees the Panthers win the NFC South regardless of any other outcome, but I suspect that will happen anyway, and after seeing Seattle take care of Carolina this last week I’m comfortable with that.

Beyond that, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to go down against the Panthers in the Saturday afternoon matchup, sending their pick above Atlanta’s. Tampa is playing for the division, although it seems as if nobody told them that based on their recent results, and their fall from grace over the last couple months is extreme, so this seems likely as well.

The Dallas Cowboys are the next team we’re looking for a loss from, although that’s a difficult proposition with them traveling to New York to play the Giants. The game is meaningless for both sides, but a New York loss virtually guarantees them a top two draft pick, so they may be more motivated to lose. Not counting on much help here.

Don’t forget about the Detroit Lions, who can conclude their late season meltdown by dropping below .500 by falling to the Chicago Bears this weekend. They will also need to maintain a lower strength of schedule than Atlanta in order for their pick to leapfrog, currently holding at .491 compared to Atlanta’s .496, so it’s not locked up, but I’m optimistic as Chicago needs the win.

Finally, you have the Baltimore Ravens, who have the hammer slot for the division title on Sunday Night against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Should they lose, an 8-9 Ravens squad could pick ahead of Atlanta. It won’t be easy, as they currently hold a .502 strength of schedule, but things can certainly break that way.

I wouldn’t spend much time thinking about the Minnesota Vikings, who would need to lose to the Green Bay Packers and then experience a nigh-impossible confluence of events to knock their SOS down over 0.02 points in order to pick above Atlanta, so that’s the cutoff.

Put it all together, and it’s technically possible the Falcons pick falls all the way to 16th in the first round, right in the middle, far lower than anticipated earlier in the year when it looked like Atlanta was flirting with a five win season. And since we’re hoping Seattle has the top seed sewn up on Saturday night, we may as well give ourselves something to root for on Sunday.

I'm just happy the Rams won't get this guy. — Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Byron Baldwin Jr. (2) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Jamari Sharpe (22) bring down Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17). | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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